The Hardest Ever

This time last year, England were about to enter their first Ashes series against Australia for 22 years. I was awash with optimism that England were at least going to give it a really good go. That optimism was washed away by half time of test 1 in a series that saw England score just two tries across three matches.

The World Cup in 2026 in Australia offers a shot at redemption but achieving that is going to be as difficult as it has ever been. There is a very real chance that England do not make it out of the group stages.

For England, that would represent a terrible return and prompt questions about why we are going back in the international arena and not forward. For the wider game, it would be a success story as there are now several teams who have a genuine shot at a semi final spot.

The international game has changed. In the last two World Cups, we have seen Australia, England, New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa and Tonga all reach the semi final stage and three of those teams reach a final (New Zealand not being one of them!).

England are competing against Samoa, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, Lebanon and France in a hybrid group and, with no quarter final stage, only two of those teams will reach a semi final. Effectively, one big team will be out at the group stage.

The unusual group structure means England only play three of those teams in the group phase; being Tonga, Papua New Guinea and France.

England's opening match of the group stage on 17th October against Tonga is the toughest. If England lose that match, which is very plausible, their fate may come down to points difference or relying on other results going their way. 

England would not only need to beat Papua New Guinea and France but would need to post substantial wins to have a chance of making the semi finals.

And even that may not be enough. Due to the confused format, if England and Tonga finish level on points, then the tie-breaker in the group phase would not be points difference but head-to-head record.

To put that another way, if England lose to Tonga but beat Papua New Guinea and France, they would still be eliminated if Tonga were to beat Lebanon and lose to Samoa, even if England have a superior points difference. Got it? Me neither.

Of course, if England win that first game against Tonga, then a place in the semi final looks assured. And it must be remembered that Tonga have the toughest fixtures in this group; having to face both England and Samoa. Tonga will need to win at least one of these two matches to have a chance at qualifying.

The World Cup was expanded to something akin to what we see today in 1995. In the six tournaments since, England have never faced a group stage as tough as this. Allow me to demonstrate.

In 1995, England would have needed to lose to Fiji or South Africa not to progress. In 2000, that would have been Fiji and Russia. In 2008, due to the farcical 'super-group' system, England would have needed to lose all group matches not to qualify (they gave it a good go, mind you!). The same position applied in 2013 and 2017.

In 2022, England would have had to lose to two of Samoa, France and Greece not to progress.

Put simply, the prospect of England not qualifying for the knockout stages in previous tournaments was remote.

In 2026, that is not so. This is a good thing. A World Cup where a group stage is a foregone conclusion is a bad thing. The fact that Samoa and Tonga have a realistic shot at progressing gives the tournament the credibility that it needs.

England's record in the Southern hemisphere is generally terrible. A side from these isles haven't beaten Australia there since 2006. In fact, they haven't beaten Australia anywhere since 2006. England or Great Britain haven't defeated New Zealand in the Southern hemisphere since 1992.

The bad news? If England do progress, it is highly likely they will face either Australia or New Zealand in a semi final. So to reach a final, they will have to do something that they have not done for somewhere between 20 and 34 years.

So for England to win the tournament, they likely need to:

• Defeat Tonga in the group stages or lose to Tonga but win their other two matches and hope that Tonga lose to Samoa in the final group match (or, if Tonga defeat Samoa, for England to have a better points difference than Samoa).
  
  
• Defeat either Australia or New Zealand in the semi final.
  
  
• Defeat the other of those two sides in the final.

In addition to England's mighty tough route to success and their poor record in the Southern Hemisphere, they haven't played a game in a year, they haven't had a training session in a year, it is likely that some (if not a majority) of the players will not even have met the head coach and a number of key players have withdrawn through injury.

This is as tough of an ask as England have ever faced at a World Cup.

By contrast, in 2022, England had the easiest run to a World Cup Final that they have ever had and still fluffed their lines in a home semi final against a Samoa side that is nowhere near as good as it is now.

I am conscious that this piece has been full of negatives. So let's try and end with something positive. If, somehow, England do manage to put together a run to the World Cup Final, it will be one of the greatest achievements in the national side's history.