Rugby League World Cup Wrap #1 - Red Alert

England and Tonga have developed a burgeoning rivalry over the years. Anyone who watched England's match against Tonga in Widnes in 2006, which descended into a mass brawl would attest to that.

From a literal fight to a metaphorical one came the 2017 World Cup Semi Final. Widely considered one of the greatest matches and occasions of modern times. Roared on by a partisan crowd, Tonga fought back from 0-20 down to trail 18-20.

A contentious knock on call denied Tonga a first win over England and a place in the World Cup final.

England also faced Tonga in a test series in 2023. My abiding memory of that was another Alan Partridge-esque accidental moment of hilarity from the-then England coach Shaun Wane.

Wane's anger at a perceived slight by Tonga coach Kristian Woolf nearly sent him into arterial compromise. The sight of the customarily cool Woolf stood as stark contrast. 

England won that test series 3-0 and, in truth, rarely looked threatened by Tonga.

Today's match was again a high stakes one. Usually, a group stage match in a World Cup is relatively low stakes. The convoluted group format and England's fixtures meant that if they lost today, then their fate would be out of their hands and prospects of progressing from the group stage to the semi finals were slim.

This effectively turned the match from a group stage fixture to a de facto quarter final, from England's perspective.

General consensus before the game was that Tonga had the edge in the backs. The forwards were more evenly matched, but Tonga's greater depth was a concern. An area where Tonga have always struggled is in the half back positions. Yet even here, they looked better than recent years even though Isaiya Katoa divides opinion.

And, as he so often does, the Tui Lolohea who plays for Tonga is a different beast to the one who plays for Huddersfield.

Brian McDermott promised that England would play a different style as the conservative approach hasn't led to many rewards historically. It soon became clear that he meant this as England sought to offload at any opportunity. This led to some errors but that is to be expected when you play this style.

England's pack laid a great platform and gave England plenty of territory. Yet when England got close to the Tonga line, it sometimes felt predictable. On occasions, Tonga were forced into scramble mode and they did so excellently to prevent Dom Young and Herbie Farnworth from opening the scoring.

Despite having better territory, England trailed 10-0 at the break courtesy of a Stefan Utoikamanu try and two Katoa penalties. This laid England's shortcoming bare. For the Tongan try, slick attacking runners caused confusion as Williams and Pearce-Paul found themselves on top of each other, leading to the gap. There were no such gaps in the Tongan defence.

The second half started in a similar fashion to the first, except this time England took their chance. A decisive run from Brad O'Neill saw the ball worked to Williams, who found Savala in space. Brimson's support play was excellent and it was game on.

The match decisively swung in Tonga's favour when Haumole Olakau'atu scored a fortunate try. England had Tonga pinned in their own half before giving away a 4th tackle penalty for a high tackle that could only be seen by referee Gerard Sutton.

The purported victim was Dallin Watene-Zelezniak who went down holding some part of his extremities for what felt like the 15th time that match. Watene-Zelezniak may not have been the man of the match but he did possess an ability to draw a penalty seemingly on demand, whilst simultaneously putting himself in contention for an Academy Award for outstanding dramatic performance.

Tonga scored from the resulting set as a grubber kick pinballed and fell into the grateful hands of Olakau'tau. This try was a gut punch for England, as the 10 point gap re-opened.

After this, Tonga smelt blood. They were clearly revelling in the discomfort of their Northern Hemisphere opponents. Their pack started to dominate. England started to be pushed back more and more. With the exception of a Dom Young try providing brief respite, Tonga outclassed England for the rest of the match, earning a deserved 30-12 win.

The uncomfortable reality for England was that it could have been worse than that had Tonga's last minute try not been disallowed.

Let's not beat around the bush here, this result is likely fatal for England's World Cup chances.

Barring anything unexpected, England will not overhaul Tonga in the group stages due to head-to-head record being a tiebreaker.

Their only hope of qualifying seems to be winning their next two matches handsomely and hoping Tonga beat Samoa. As England do not face Samoa in the group phase, the tiebreaker would be points difference in this circumstance.

However, as England lost by 18 points and Samoa beat France by 74 points, that is an uphill and likely insurmountable task. England's defeat of itself may not have been fatal, but the significant dent in their points difference may be. 

If you are a fan of England (or Great Britain, once upon a time), then you will be used to carrying out post-tournament inquests of what went wrong. The sad reality is that inquest may now begin after one game.

And if it hasn't started already, I will start by picking over the carcass of England's fading World Cup hopes.

The decision for England not to take Jake Connor to the World Cup was one that generated debate. And it will be brought into sharp focus after today's result.

On the one hand, he provided 44 try assists in Super League this year. And given Brian McDermott's desire to play a more off-the-cuff style, one would think a more maverick player like Connor would fit the bill more than the more formulaeic (yet organising supremo) Harry Smith.

On the other, Connor has not been selected for England by two of the most successful Super League coaches we have ever seen and that leads to questions about what they see as being missing that us mere mortals do not. Perhaps it is the reality that Connor does sometimes struggle when targeted in attack by a powerful loose forward and against highly-disciplined defences.

After today's result these debates will rage. And it is often the case that a player's stock increases more when they do not play rather than when they do, especially at international level.

My view is that whilst Connor may have fitted McDermott's structure better, the gap between the two sides meant that his inclusion would probably have done little to alter the outcome.

England were missing the likes of Tom Johnstone, Mike McMeeken and Morgan Knowles who probably would have made the starting team. Plus Morgan Smithies who may have.

Again, would this have shifted the dial? I doubt it as England had the territory but not the cutting edge. For all the talents of those missing, they are not England's creators.

In some ways, this is even more of a worry. This wasn't an off day. I didn't feel England played particularly badly. The uncomfortable reality is that our best are not as good as Tonga's, on the evidence of today.

England have long struggled in the Southern Hemisphere. A worry is that this is no longer just against Australia and New Zealand but several other nations too.

Whilst not a surprising defeat, it is a historic one. Before today, England have never lost to Tonga.

We appear to be static, whilst the likes of Tonga and Samoa advance. The net result being England go backwards in the international pecking order. 

Since 2019, England have lost to Samoa, Tonga, Australia and New Zealand. Great Britain have lost to Papua New Guinea. But don't kid yourselves, Great Britain in 2019 were just England in a slightly nicer kit.

From an international perspective, that's good. The more teams who can beat each other, the more engaging the international game becomes.

The key question for England is how we improve things. One answer could be to look at the NRL’s offer to invest in Super League in a more favourable light.

Though whilst that may (or hope) lead to more frequent and better organised international competition, it does not appear obvious to me how this would improve our fortunes.

That responsibility falls to the English game. It can't be outsourced to a marketing agency. It can't be delegated to another governing body.

I don't envy the person or people tasked with closing the gap, as the riches, status and power between the two hemispheres continues to grow.