On Grand Final Day...

As I write this we are a little over six hours away from kick off in the most unique of Grand Finals. For the first time ever, the side who finished 3rd will play the side who finished 4th. For the first time since the 1998 Grand Final, we are guaranteed a new name on the Super League trophy.

For just the second time, the sides who finished in 1st and 2nd place have been banished before the Grand Final. For the first time in either 71 years in Warrington's case or 58 years in Wakefield's case will one of these sides be the champions by around 8pm tonight.

If you have any memory of either of these clubs being the champions, you would have to be drawing your pension.

This time last week, I expected Wigan to beat Wakefield to set up a repeat of the 2013, 2016 and 2018 Grand Finals. From a Warrington perspective, that would have meant a Grand Final which was as low in pressure as could be expected.

Very few would have expected Warrington to win. They finished 8th last year! Only once has a side gone from missing out on the play offs one year, to Super League champions the next (Leeds in 2016 to 2017, if you're interested).

Wakefield's win changed the dynamic. Warrington went from being underdogs to marginal favourites with the bookies. The situation has now changed to one where the anticipation and expectation has increased.

The way both sides have approached the game has been fascinating to me and you can look at it in two different ways.

Warrington have been quite low key. No merchandise. No fan send off. No huge media presence. They are treating it like another game. Maybe that is a consequence of them being in finals in both 2024 and 2025 and learning from those defeats. Maybe it is scarring from a more brash but unsuccessful approach that the club has taken in recent years.

Wakefield have been the opposite. They have got all kinds of branded merchandise, a big fan send off. Their owner (perhaps unwisely) got drawn into answering a question about where he wants to see a World Club Challenge if Wakefield win. Caius Faatili has died his hair in what I think are supposed to be Wakefield colours but looks more like a clown wig.

Ask the Leeds team of March 2012 how ridiculous you may look dying your hair in an outlandish colour and then losing.

One way of looking at this is that Warrington look like a team laser-focused on the final and who know how to prepare for one. Wakefield looks like a team that cannot quite believe they have made it this far.

Another way of looking at it is that Warrington are nervous and Wakefield are relaxed. And if you don't enjoy the week before a major final, then why are you even in Rugby League?

You may construct your narrative of which is correct after the event and when we know who has won!

From Daryl Powell's perspective, any preparation would be better than the disastrous build up to the 2017 Grand Final when he was last at Old Trafford, with Castleford.

Turning from off field matters to on-field now. I'll start with a truism. If Wakefield play as well as they did last weekend, they will win.

I'll continue with a second truism. It is very unlikely Wakefield will be able to do that. It is hard to overstate how remarkable Wakefield were last week. Wigan left their own half on just seven occasions. Wakefield made zero handling errors in the second half. They were dominant and clinical. It was close to Rugby League perfection.

The good news for Wakefield is that they do not have to play as well as last week in order to win. There can be a decline in performance levels and that would still be good enough.

Wakefield will surely not go away from their principles. They like to dominate in the forwards and offload the ball. As I type, I look out of the window and the sun is shining. Traditional Grand Final weather this is not. This will suit Wakefield.

But on Grand Final night, even if the rain is not pouring, palms can become sweatier. Hearts can miss a beat.

It may get lost in Hull KR's triumph 12 months ago but they started that game poorly. Wigan missed two chances that they would normally have converted. But for that, the outcome may have been very different. Yet from 20 minutes onwards, Hull KR were exceptional.

I expect Wakefield will dominate in the forwards. They did against Wigan, meanwhile Leeds' pack arguably got the better of Warrington's.

Wakefield will need to convert their chances when they come. This is where Leeds failed last week. Territory was plentiful but Warrington's goal line defence was outstanding.

As for Warrington, the approach they take to matches is quite different to Wakefield. It is based on being conservative, mitigating risk and then letting their talented half backs do the job when chances do present.

Warrington will probably favour a game which is stop-start. They may have favoured rain. They will seek to force errors and frustrate Wakefield in the hope that if they can take them into the last 10 or 20 minutes with the game in the balance, they will finish the job.

A frequent tactic of George Williams is to try a grubber kick into the in goal area. And it is one he often deploys with exquisite accuracy. Old Trafford's tiny in goal areas and undulating surface means that this is an even harder skill to execute, especially with a threat of, if you get it wrong, you give Wakefield's pack a seven-tackle set.

This is why in recent Grand Finals you see so many sides running a powerplay and settling to keep their opponents at the wrong end of the field.

In terms of performance, Warrington have been less eye-catching than Wakefield in recent weeks. I thought they were dogged and brave against Leeds but it wasn't a performance that would strike fear into opponents. 

What is eye-catching is Warrington's form. Nine wins from the last 10 games is very impressive. It matters not how you win just if you do. Of course, the one game they lost? That's right. To Wakefield.

Wakefield had a dip in August losing three games to Leeds, St Helens and Wigan. Since then, they haven't looked back with wins over Warrington, Leigh (twice) and Wigan. Arguably, they have got better and better with each passing win.

This is a Grand Final full of intrigue. And I haven't even touched on the personal stories. The final career games of Jay Pitts and Sam Powell. The final game for their clubs for Mason Lino, Cam Scott, James Bentley and George Williams (and maybe Lachlan Walmsley - currently without a club for 2027). The chance for the coaches of the clubs to become immortals.

The joy of the fans at full time will be incredible. For whoever wins, it will taste even sweeter having waited so long. It may even be tinged with sadness for some; those who would have loved to share the moment with family members and friends who are no longer with us.

It is a Grand Final of many unknowns. I'd certainly say more unknowns that usual. What I do know is that the atmosphere will be electric, nerves will be shredded, history will be made and we will be in for an evening that will live long in the memory.

My prediction:

Warrington 16-6 Wakefield