Are Leeds the real deal?

When you look at contenders for the Super League title, I tend to class them as either the old guard or insurgents.

With their recent record of trophy winning, Wigan come under old guard. Even though it was a few years ago now, St Helens' four titles in a row means they also come under the old guard.

Meanwhile, teams who have reached the Grand Final like Hull KR, Catalans, Salford and Castleford come under the insurgent category.

Leeds are currently top of the Super League table after 16 matches, losing only three times this season. I think we are now beyond the conversation of whether they are contenders; they are. But are Leeds the old guard or insurgents? I'm not sure.

On the one hand, Leeds are eight time Super League champions, have won the Challenge Cup four times in the summer era. And that's without mentioning three World Club Challenges and three League Leaders' Shields. That sounds like an established winner, right?

On the other, Leeds are approaching 10 years without a Super League title (its last victory being in 2017). In fact, the only major trophy that Leeds have won in the last nine seasons was one Challenge Cup in 2020. 

It is a trophy haul that is equal to Catalans and Leigh. And, with all respect to those clubs, Leeds would see itself as a club greater than one who wins one trophy in a decade.

As Leeds' golden generation sailed into the sunset, the club has spent years in the wilderness. They participated in the "middle 8's" on more than one occasion. In 2019, they were dumped out of the Challenge Cup by Championship Bradford and there was a period of time in that season when there were genuine relegation worries.

Leeds did reach the 2022 Grand Final courtesy of a once-in-a-lifetime style run. They won two games in the last minute and pulled off one of Super League's greatest ever comebacks against Catalans. Any of those things don't happen, and they miss out on the play offs and Leeds' 2022 looks very different.

It felt like an aberration rather than a model on which consistent success could be built. And so it proved as consecutive 8th placed finishes followed.

As Brad Arthur entered, Leeds turned a corner. Player recruitment improved. A bit more positivity returned to the fanbase. Early signs evidence in an August 2024 win over Wigan. 2025 saw a return to the play offs for Leeds. The manner in which they exited the play offs will never be forgotten but reflecting on the season as a whole, the trajectory was upwards.

2026 has seen Leeds reach a new level. The 58-6 victory over Hull KR in Las Vegas was eye-catching. And in June, Leeds have defeated St Helens and backed that up with two handsome victories over 2nd placed Warrington and 3rd placed Hull KR. No mean feat.

There is a reality in Super League that what you do between February and early September pales into insignificance by comparison to what you do from mid September to mid October.

However, whilst our play off system means that an entire season's work can go up in smoke in one poor 80 minute performance, in reality, that rarely happens and there is evidence that a higher finish matters.

In the six seasons that we have had the current top six system, only one team from outside the top two has ever reached a Grand Final (ironically, Leeds in 2022). No side who finished outside the top two has ever won the Grand Final under this system.

You do not need to be a genius to figure out that a top two finish is therefore very important. Leeds currently have a four point gap over third placed Wigan and fourth placed St Helens.

We have 11 matches left this regular season and Leeds are due to play sides who are currently in the top six on just three occasions. This, combined with the existing buffer, means Leeds will fancy their chances at a top two finish.

One question that remains over Leeds (and one that cannot be answered until the season's end) is their performance in big games.

Since winning the Challenge Cup in 2020, Leeds have not beaten a Super League side in that competition. Most recently, they wilted against Wakefield in 2026.

In last year's play offs, Leeds exited to a reasonably uninspiring St Helens side (a match in which, even if Leeds had won, you would be hard pressed to construct an argument that they played well).

Put simply, Leeds' records in big games in recent years is pretty abject. Only in that 2022 run did they impress.

Whilst this is not a different side that exited to Wakefield in the Challenge Cup in 2026 or to St Helens in the league and cup in 2025, results in 2021 are probably of less relevance.

Leeds have shown evidence that they are a different side this year. Whether that can translate into a big game performance in a knockout game will be the question that defines Leeds' season.

There is something that feels right about Leeds being in the big matches. Headingley hosting play off semi finals rather than middle 8 matches. That's certainly how you would feel if you are a Loiner.

The club is definitely moving in the right direction. The big question that the rest of this season will answer is whether they are ready to take that next step back to winner's row.