The Price of Success

-

Sport is cyclical. Or so they say. That's not always true as in some leagues, you have one behemoth that dominates for years. In 2025, Super League crowned only its fifth winner in 30 years.

Teams like Wigan and St Helens have peaks and troughs but usually revert to trophy winning before too long. Between 2018 and 2024, these were the only two sides to win Super League. 

Leeds had a dominant spell from 2004 - 2017 but have won only one trophy in the nine years since then. Will Leeds bounce back to their post-millennium mean or revert to the Leeds of old that hadn't won a trophy between 1978 and 2003 and hadn't won the league between 1972 and 2004?

Hull KR have recently entered the conversation. No trophies in a generation and then three in a single, glorious 2025. 

Super League's straight-jacket known as the salary cap in some ways punishes success.

As St Helens dominated the latter part of the last decade and the start of this one, their players with average salaries rightly deserved pay rises. Due to the constraints of the salary cap, St Helens couldn't offer that and the likes of Theo Fages left to join Huddersfield and Lachlan Coote moved to Hull KR, where they could be the main men.

The same has recently happened to Wigan. In 2025, they signed George Hirst and Christian Wade. One has not played for the club yet and the other fans may wish never played for the club after a comedically-farcical performance against Hull FC.

Wigan have the financial might to strengthen but not the salary cap space. Giving Bevan French a four year contract in 2024 and Jai Field the same in 2025 doesn't come cheap and will doubtlessly have limited Wigan's room for manoeuvre in the transfer market.

In 2026, Wigan have signed Oliver Wilson and Oliver Partington (in terms of 'first team ready' players) but have moved on Kruise Leeming, Liam Byrne, Harvie Hill and Tyler Dupree.

In order to strengthen, Wigan have had to move players on who have achieved international honours. This has left Wigan's squad in a mainly stagnant state, heightened by major signing Wilson suffering a long-term ending injury before even taking the field.

If Hull KR continue to be a dominant force, the same thing will happen to them. You imagine that Mikey Lewis has received a significant salary increase to keep the NRL wolves from the door. He won't be the first or last player who will rightly take up more salary cap space if Hull KR want to retain them, leading to a squeeze and difficult decisions to be made.

How do you improve on a near-perfect season? For Hull KR, it is possible with the World Club Challenge prize up for grabs.

But success brings competing challenges. Hull KR go from hunters to hunted. We have seen so often sides struggle after a World Club Challenge; win or lose. These, plus a trip to Las Vegas to play Leeds, to contend with! Overcoming those without any impact on results would be remarkable.

Wigan's unfortified squad and the unique challenges Hull KR face means that other sides in Super League may fancy their chances of breaking the duopoly that has been developing over the last couple of years.

Leigh have established themselves as a top club in recent years. Ruthless decision making to refresh the half backs with the signing of Adam Cook (leaving Gareth O'Brien on the outer) and bringing in Liam Horne to supplement the explosive Edwin Ipape show they are not content to stop now. I'm excited to see Jacob Alick-Wienck too.

Leeds showed significant improvement in 2026 compared to recent seasons and will want to keep up that trend. Although having looked at their squad, it seems to me to be a little below the levels of some of the other challengers. But with the impressive Brad Arthur at the helm and Jake Connor in career best form, they will be looking upwards not over their shoulders.

St Helens have recruited aggressively for 2026, after admitting taking their eye off the ball in recent years. A penny for Paul Wellens' thoughts when he sees the recruitment St Helens have made this year, by comparison to the penny-pinching when he was at the helm. Jackson Hastings especially brings the kicking game so lacking in 2025.

Wakefield and Hull FC exceeded expectations in 2025. And with that comes heightened expectation in 2026. It will be interesting to see how they cope with that. Of those two, Tyson Smoothy's arrival at Wakefield is the one that excites me the most. Hull FC's recruitment may not include any superstars but is well balanced.

Predicting what Warrington will do in any given week let alone a season is a fool's game. Bringing in Steve McNamara to the coaching set up is a good move (although the dynamic alongside Sam Burgess will be fascinating to see) and there are plenty of ins and outs. I am especially keen to see how Cai Taylor-Wray goes, with the club showing faith in him by giving him the #1 jersey in 2026.

After a dreadful 2025, Catalans started to show signs of life towards the end of the year. With 13 players joining and 15 leaving this is effectively a new team. Predicting what they will do? Your guess is as good as mine!

As for Castleford, Huddersfield, Bradford, York and Toulouse, to make the top 6 would be a rampant triumph. 

Castleford and Huddersfield have been in the doldrums for a few years now. If you want cause for optimism, Castleford's recruitment led by Chris Chester looks better than it has for a few years and Ryan Carr looks to be an astute coach. I expect better from Castleford this year but equally can't identify a team they will overtake.

Luke Robinson has done ok with the resources available at his disposal. Huddersfield were beset with injury after injury last year. With a clean bill of health, they will hope 2026 can be better than 2025.

For the Super League newbies, this year is about consolidation. It is tough for any new side making the jump from the Championship. Finishing above one of the Super League 2025 incumbents would be a success in my view.

I think we are in for a very open Super League in 2026 and one that is very difficult to predict. Saying that, with my track record of predictions, anything is hard to predict. 

I'll give it a go anyway! I thought about whether to play it safe and just put Hull KR and Wigan as the top two even though that's not what I think. Instead, I went with my gut feeling. I hope it's more accurate than my prediction of a top two finish for Catalans last year!

1. Leigh
2. St Helens
3. Hull KR
4. Wigan
5. Leeds
6. Hull FC
7. Warrington
8. Wakefield
9. Catalans
10. Castleford
11. Huddersfield
12. Bradford
13. York
14. Toulouse

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Read:

The Toxicity of the Match Officials Department

-
This morning, it was confirmed by the RFL that Head of Match Officials since 2016, Steve Ganson, has been suspended pending investigation. Under Ganson's tenure, James Child, Ian Smith, Matt Thomason, George Stokes, Sam Ansell, Phil Bentham, Richard Silverwood, Joe Cobb, Chris Campbell, Steve Presley and Mike Burnett have all left the RFL. Meanwhile, Robert Hicks has stepped down as a full-time referee, moving to a compliance role, Jack Smith stepped down as a full-time referee before returning and Ben Thaler was suspended and later reinstated in mysterious circumstances. Such a high turnover of staff in a department with relatively few staff should raise cause for concern. Especially when many departing staff have commented on their departures in such damning terms. Here are what some have said: James Child The most recently departed match official, James Child, has spoken to Forty-20 Magazine. " What I've always found difficult about refereeing are not the external press...
View full blog

Have London Broncos Broken IMG?

-
I am sorry but I am about to drop the C bomb. Christmas. I know, I know, it's only October but it's coming! The time of year that products are rushed out for consumers. Some of you may find a game under your Christmas tree this year. Let's take a moment to think how it got there. Before any game hits the shelves and is played by a consumer, it is extensively 'play-tested'. This means that developers play these games repeatedly, trying all sorts of different techniques, with the intention of 'breaking' the game; finding an error that renders it flawed. When they do, it is back to the drawing board, the flaw is ironed out and you play test again. A lot of work goes in to games to ensure, to the best extent possible, they are unbreakable. This is a Rugby League blog. So what does this have to do with anything? Well, the sport is set to introduce a new licensing system from 2025 and I wondered whether IMG and the RFL have done the equivalent of play-testing the ...
View full blog

Silence is the loudest noise of all

-
In August 2019, Batley Bulldogs hooker Archie Bruce made his debut for the club in an away defeat against Toulouse. He never returned home. Archie died from asphyxiation (suffocation) after a team night out.  A post-mortem report revealed Archie had consumed alcohol, cocaine and had 'toxic' levels of Tramadol (a strong painkiller) in his system at the time of his death. The levels of Tramadol (a medication only available on prescription), according to an expert at Archie's inquest, was in fact double the level considered toxic and potentially fatal. Archie's inquest was told that Batley Bulldogs players used Tramadol regularly, and illegal drugs including cocaine. One member of the Batley squad told the inquest " Everyone knows [about cocaine use in the squad], you just have to keep it under wraps" . After the inquest, Archie's family called for the RFL and its member clubs to implement a robust code of conduct to ensure a similar tragedy did not occur. Th...
View full blog