The Final Charge

We are a little over one month away from the Super League Grand Final and with two rounds of the regular season to go, the play off picture is starting to take shape.

After 27 weekends of shuffling ourselves into order on a starting grid, the play offs will begin which may have the impact of rendering those 27 weeks of work largely irrelevant in 80 short minutes. 

We tend to brush over that inherent unfairness in the pursuit of manufacturing the greatest possible level of drama that we can. Still, for those who believe that the best team over a long season should receive greater reward, we can console ourselves that this play off system does offer some form of reward for the higher placed teams.

We have had this current iteration of the top 6 system in place since 2020 and only on one occasion has a side outside of the top 2 reached the Grand Final. Anyway, enough about my grumbles and on to the purpose of this post. Looking at the prospects of the contenders.

Derby victory for Hull KR on Sunday meant that they all but wrapped up the League Leaders' Shield, meaning a home semi final against the lowest ranked team left in the play offs. If the play offs follow the league table, that will be against Leeds or Leigh.

Hull KR have lost just four games all season, have the best attack and the best defence in the league. They are the bookmakers' favourites. 

If results for the remainder of the season see the favourite win every time, Hull KR would face Leeds in a semi final. That is interesting because Hull KR have lost to Leeds on two occasions this season. On the one occasion they did win, it required a late surge and one of KR's most impressive performances to get that win.

I suspect Hull KR would rather face Leigh. Hull KR are impressive but have struggled in the types of games that our Australian friends would call 'play off footy'. In last year's Grand Final, this year's Challenge Cup Final, twice against Leeds and once against both Wigan and St Helens this year, Hull KR have scored just one try.

Against a well-drilled defence, sometimes, they can seem short of ideas. They were fortunate that a Warrington error gave them a chance to win a Challenge Cup Final (but it matters not how you win). But, whereas Hull KR of last year may have come out on the wrong side of those games, lately, they are coming out on the right side of them.

Of those games listed above in 2025, they have won three of the five games where they have scored one try. Arguably, what prevented a Hull KR title last year was an inability to adapt to 'play off footy'. We are now seeing a team that is learning and perfecting that art.

Wigan look pretty secure in second place. Even should they be defeated by Leeds on the final day of the season, their superior points difference should see them secure a direct path to a semi final.

They will face the other of Leeds and Leigh (the higher ranked team), if the preliminary semi finals go as expected. In 2023 and 2024, on the majority of occasions that Wigan faced Leigh, they swatted them away quite easily. That has changed in 2025, with Leigh getting the better of Wigan twice. And in the one meeting between Leeds and Wigan this year, Wigan were again defeated.

Wigan have had their usual mid-season blip and seem to have come out of the other side. They have been here before, done it and won it. They are the reigning champions and will fear no-one. In my opinion, they are still the team to beat. The combination of Jai Field, Bevan French and Harry Smith is as perfectly balanced as you will get.

Saying that, the Wigan of 2025 are not as flawless as they were in 2024. There have been defeats in big games. Even against St Helens on Friday, whilst they were comfortably the better team, there were more errors in their game. A better team may have taken advantage.

Leeds have defeated every side in Super League at least once this year. The play offs will hold no fear for Leeds. Curiously, the one side who they have struggled against is St Helens and a quirk of fate means that is possible that is who Leeds' opponents will be in the opening week of the play offs.

Man of steel-elect Jake Connor has been subdued by St Helens' smothering defence this year. If that is a preliminary semi final, Leeds may enter with some nerves.

On the face of it, Leeds should be good enough to overcome that challenge. People talk a lot about Leeds' attack but their defence is up their with the best in Super League and that always gives you a chance in a play off.

A question I have about Leeds is can they back it up for 3 weeks, as they may need to do? When they beat Wigan earlier this year, they lost to Warrington the next week. When they beat Hull KR in July, they lost to St Helens the next week. Importantly, after defeating Hull KR in August, they impressed against Hull FC the next week. Maybe they can now back it up?

If Leeds make a semi final, their approach will fascinate me. Will they continue with an off-the-cuff, enterprising style and go against the grain? Or will they embrace 'the grind' that seems to be the blueprint for Super League success? And if they do stick with their principles, what result will that yield?

I am not sure that Leigh have been given enough credit for their 2025 season. Since returning to Super League, they have made the play offs ever year and are set to achieve their highest ever Super League finish and their first ever home play off.

Whatever happens, this has been an incredibly successful and commendable year. That home preliminary semi final will be against St Helens, Wakefield or Hull FC. A game which Leigh will believe, rightly, that they are capable of winning.

Leigh made the semi finals last year but were disappointed by their display at Wigan; a game where they were outclassed in every department. Should they reach an away semi final at Hull KR or Wigan again, they will be the underdogs. This is a side that seems to thrive on that tag and one which will be determined not to go out with a whimper, like in 2024.

It seems very likely that St Helens will finish in 5th spot, a slight improvement on last year's 6th placed finish.

If they are to win Super League, they will need to beat Leeds or Leigh away, then Hull KR or Wigan away, then (probably) the other of Hull KR or Wigan at Old Trafford. Given St Helens' abject record against most of those sides, it seems a matter of when and not if their season comes to a premature end.

The final play off place remains undecided between Wakefield and Hull FC. Realistically, neither of these sides are going to win Super League and simply making the play offs would be an achievement.

For Wakefield, to make the play offs for the first time since 2018 and on their return to Super League would be a triumph. And the same is true of Hull FC, especially when you consider the depths to which they sank last year. Both Daryl Powell and John Cartwright have done fine jobs.

Enjoy the last couple of weeks of the season and what is likely to be the final version of the top 6 play offs, before we lower the bar to a laughable extent and give the side who finishes 8th a chance to call themselves champions next year and revert to a system which brought record-low play off crowds, gives little advantage to a higher placed finish and contains a first week which is largely pointless.

I do not like to end on a negative so let's change approach. We have a play off series coming which feels more open than we have had for a few years, one which is tricky to predict and one which I am confident will deliver when it comes to entertainment and talking points.