The next cab off the rank

In the Challenge Cup, there have been 8 different winners in the last 10 years. We have also had 8 different winners of the League Leaders' Shield since it was introduced in 2002. Yet there are still just four names on the Super League title since the league's creation in 1996.

Since 2018, the title has simply changed hands between Wigan and St Helens as Leeds' "golden generation" ended. 

Interestingly, despite the Super League title only having red and white (sorry, cherry not red for Wigan!) ribbons on it since 2018, Wigan and St Helens have only met in one Super League Grand Final in that time.

It is strange that we get a variety of teams winning the Challenge Cup and League Leaders' Shield but the Super League champions remain a select few. 

And it is not like we haven't come close. Hull FC, Warrington (four times), Castleford, Salford, Catalans (twice) and Hull KR have all got to the Grand Final and all failed. On 10 occasions has a 'new' side reached Old Trafford since 2006 and on 10 occasions they have failed. 

You would think that even by fortune or chance, that on just one of those 10 occasions a new name would be able to win. Some of these matches have been close, others not so. 

Warrington have lost their four Grand Finals by 8, 14, 6 and 8 points. Ironically, the 14 point defeat was arguably their biggest chance as they held a 14 point lead at one point.

Catalans losing margin in 2021 was just two points. Catalans lost by eight points in 2023, Hull KR by seven in 2024.  

The underdog has shown it can win in the Challenge Cup against those who have sat in Super League winner's row. In 2023, Leigh beat St Helens and Hull KR beat Wigan to reach the Challenge Cup Final. 

In 2018, Catalans beat runway league leaders St Helens in the semi final. In 2017, Hull FC defeated Wigan at Wembley and beat the same opponents in the semi final in 2016.

The expression goes that anything can happen in a knockout cup competition and some may seek to use this as a reason why there is variety in the Challenge Cup.

But the Super League is also a knockout cup competition. We have 27 rounds to effectively get to a starting grid, where the higher you finish (notionally) the easier run you get in the play offs. In reality, there is little difference between finishing first and second.

So why can underdogs and more teams do it in the cup than in the league? What is it about the Super League that is so different? 

Arguably, in Super League it should be easier. You often get a home tie in the semi final and sometimes it is against lower ranking opposition that you might face in a Challenge Cup semi final.

To try and answer this question, let's look at what is factually different about the Super League.

- You play in the same competition in consecutive weeks.
- It is in October and the conditions are likely to be worse.
- The competition is the week-by-week routine rather than a competition you play in more sparingly.
- There is not a history of many clubs winning it.

I have no idea which, if any, of these reasons are the ones that prevent anyone but the old guard from winning Super League.

It seems logical that the ability to raise your game for consecutive weeks separates the men from the boys, to borrow an expression.

Take Warrington this year. They were outstanding against Leigh in the Challenge Cup semi final and almost pulled off a masterclass against Hull KR in the Challenge Cup final. But there were a few weeks between those matches where they were ordinary at best. That has continued post-final.

By comparison, to succeed in the play offs, a side like Warrington would need to put in a consistently high level of performance for two or three weeks in a row. If they were to make the play offs this year, hypothetically, they may need to beat Leigh away, Hull KR away and then Wigan at Old Trafford in consecutive weeks to become champions.

Whilst we know Warrington can put in excellent performances, they have not managed a run of doing so this year.

Maybe that is why Super League's wait for its fifth winner goes on. Maybe that is why so many have tried and failed. 

I have long been wary of a play off system believing that it reduces the importance of the six month season to get there. And whilst the play offs come as close as possible to guaranteeing excitement, it means the journey to it is often not so.

Hull KR remain the bookmaker's favourites to make it an 11th attempt for a 'new' side to win the Grand Final. They are presently favourites not only to get to Old Trafford, but to win there.

If, this weekend, they had gone six points clear of Wigan at the top of Super League, excitement would be at fever pitch. Yesterday's match against Leeds would have been of seismic importance.

Instead, whether Hull KR won or lost yesterday's match (and whether Wigan won or lost against Leigh on Friday) will be of zero importance come October. 

I have also been cautious of the play offs as I saw being the best over 27 rounds as more difficult. But maybe the lack of variety of Grand Final winners means I am wrong. Perhaps the fact that so many have tried and failed means that the play offs do still bring that ultimate test of endurance to a greater extent than I give it credit for.

It is highly like that somebody else will win the Super League title one day. If (go on, I'll say when!) it does, then the wait to see who that will be and the journey they take to get there will be made even more special by that wait.

Maybe Hull KR are about to bring that wait to an end. But whatever happens from here until late September does not really matter in that regard. With Hull KR looking secure in the top 2, they now enter a state of purgatory before their Super League semi final, when results really matter again.