Our Time Will Come Soon

Hull KR and Warrington have been part of Rugby League (almost) since its formation, yet have only met each other once in the Challenge Cup Final, in 1905, with Warrington coming out on top.

It has taken 120 years for that line up to be repeated. In some ways, a lot can happen in 120 years. But also a lot can not happen. Hull KR, for example, have only won one Challenge Cup in that time. Warrington have a lot more historical pedigree in this competition, having won it nine times.

The pressure is on Hull KR tomorrow. This is rightly seen as Hull KR's best opportunity to win a trophy in 40 years. They are top of Super League. They have lost just once all season. They are conceding an average of less than nine points per match in the league this year.

Hull KR have not lost a match to any opponent apart from Wigan in 80 minutes, in 13 months (they were, of course, defeated by Catalans at home in golden point last July). Their form is superb. All signs point to a Hull KR victory. The bookies make them 1/4 favourites (which, as I understand it, gives Hull KR an 80% chance of victory).

Sport is rarely that simple. Their full back Arthur Mourgue is cup tied. Oliver Gildart, Rhyse Martin and Michael McIlorum are all injured (even if the latter may, inexplicably, play). If Peters sticks with his semi final team, this means James Batchelor will be pushed into an unfamiliar role at centre.

Hull KR have two excellent goalkickers and both of those will be watching from the stands. That means Mikey Lewis, whilst he never lacks confidence, will be forced into a goalkicking role with which he rarely seems comfortable.

His 65.5% success rate was the second worst of regular goalkickers in Super League last year. By contrast, Warrington's Marc Sneyd had an 89% accuracy rate last season. Hull KR, with its robust defence, will try to make this a non-issue by preventing Sneyd from having the opportunity to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Unless you are a professional athlete, it is hard to know how history burdens you, if at all. Does the expectation weigh heavily on Hull KR? Is the opportunity to break a 40 year drought to win a major trophy a source of inspiration or trepidation? After the result tomorrow, we will doubtlessly construct a narrative which fits the result.

But what of Warrington? In Super League, they have lost more than they have won this year. Amongst those losses have been some truly abject displays against Wigan in Vegas, Hull FC and Wakefield. Even in their Super League match against Leigh, they were dreadful in the first half before fighting back. Start like that tomorrow, and Hull KR won't give them a chance to fight back.

Warrington are a side of contrast because there are signs of light too. Their Cup semi final victory against Leigh was very impressive and disciplined. They pushed the most successful team of the last couple of years, Wigan, all the way at Magic Weekend.

And their home victory against St Helens where they effectively played without any half backs for the majority of the match showed an inner steel that you sometimes do not associate with Warrington. Ok, St Helens are not the force that they were, but to win and win handsomely given the predicament they faced was no mean feat.

Warrington have shown this season that they are not capable of playing well consistently. They are capable of playing well for one match. Matt Dufty can be electric out of backfield (or a total disaster). Marc Sneyd's long kicking game, goalkicking, experience and organisation is exactly what you want in a game like this. 

Despite doubts, Toby King, Paul Vaughan and George Williams will all play (though it remains to be seen quite how ready Williams is). Given Williams' experience, skill and leadership (and how Warrington are underdogs), it seems a risk worth taking. What cannot be ignored is that Warrington are also beset by injuries, the losses of Matty Ashton and Danny Walker and particularly big gaps to fill.

Warrington reached the Challenge Cup Final this time last year and were poor. From the moment Zach Eckersley scored the first try, they never looked like being able to seriously threaten Wigan. 

They will desperate to make this year different. But you never know which version of Warrington is going to turn up.

These two sides have pretty poor records in finals. Hull KR have lost the four major finals they have played in since 1986 (and have a mixed record in lower-league finals).

Since lifting the Challenge Cup in 2012, Warrington have played in eight major finals and won just one of them 

How much does this matter? Probably very little. Does it really impact any current Hull KR players that their club lost the 1986 Challenge Cup Final to Castleford, when none of their players were even alive? Or does it weight on Arron Lindop's mind that Warrington lost the 2012 Grand Final when he was just 6 years old? No. This will not impact the match tomorrow.

This is not based on detailed analysis or reason but I expect to see the best version of Warrington tomorrow. Still, that will not be able to defeat a Hull KR side that plays to the best of its ability, or close to it. If Warrington do play to their potential and Hull KR do not, the door is open for a surprise result.

After a Challenge Cup Final defeat by Leigh in 2023, Hull KR chairman Neil Hudgell said: "We are on the rise and our time will come soon".

He was right about the first part of that sentence. Is tomorrow, finally, Hull KR's time? I cannot wait to find out.