The IMG Deadline is Coming

-

Wednesday 23rd October is set to be one of the biggest days of the year in the Rugby League calendar. Here are some key questions and answers.

What is happening on Wednesday?
It is the day that the 12 teams who will compete in Super League in 2025 will be announced by the RFL. The decision will be based on a detailed set of criteria, of which on-field performance counts for just 25%.

The rest is out of the hands of playing and coaching staff and the burden of making sure that you are a Super League club lies in the hands of club executives.

The decision will be announced at 10:30am.

Can we predict who is going to be in Super League next year?
The margins are so tight and there are so many variables that the public and even journalists are not privy too, making an informed prediction is impossible.

Treat any journalistic piece you see over the next few days which claims to predict which sides will be in Super League next year with the language of certainty or even likelihood with scepticism.

Whilst individual clubs can be quite confident (but not certain) about their own score, they will not know what scores other teams will get.

What do we know so far?
The RFL released "indicative" scores for each side around 12 months ago that looked like this.

What do the different gradings mean?
"Grade A" clubs are guaranteed a place in Super League for as long as they maintain that status. The score to achieve a Grade A is 15. Seven clubs achieved that indicative score last year. Of note, Hull FC were just above that threshold.

The Grade B clubs that sit in rank 12 or above will also be in Super League next year. Grade B clubs ranked 13th or below will not.

Have any of the clubs commented about what they think their scores will be?
Yes. Here are what some of the current Grade B clubs have said.

London Broncos
The club believes their score is around 12 and accept that this means they will be demoted.

Leigh Leopards
The Leopards have announced they have 'submitted' a score of 15+. Of course, it is for the RFL to decide if that is correct. If it is, this would guarantee a place in Super League.

Wakefield Trinity
Owner Matt Ellis has stated that Wakefield will secure a score of more than 15 and a Grade A, if they beat Toulouse in tonight's Grand Final. The extension of that logic is that if they fail to beat Toulouse tonight, they will fall just below 15 and be a Grade B.

If Wakefield win tonight's Grand Final and if Matt Ellis is correct, Wakefield will be guaranteed to return to Super League next year.

Castleford Tigers
Castleford Tigers have stated that they are "quite close" to a score of 15 and have got "every possibility of getting it". New owner Martin Jepson has also said that the club believes "it is in a similar position to Wakefield". 

The club has not confirmed what it believes its score is. Should Castleford be over that 15 point threshold, its place in top flight would be guaranteed in 2025.

Toulouse Olympique
Head Coach Sylvain Houles said in July that he believes his club has improved on its 12.97 indicative rating. Neither he nor the club have been more specific.

Bradford Bulls
Bradford Bulls believe their score will be "13 or above". My reading of this is that Bradford believe its score is less than 15 and it will remain as a "Grade B" side.

Huddersfield Giants
As far as I can see, Huddersfield have made no public comment on their expected grading. What we do know is that their league positioning in 2024 will have made no positive or negative impact on their indicative score.

Salford Red Devils
Salford have made no public comment either in 2024 but we know that their score will gain a slight uplift due to improved on field performance. It is not known whether other factors will lift the score or drop it, by comparison to the indicative score in 2023.

Since all Grade A clubs are in Super League, can we make an educated guess about who might be in?
We can try! But any educated guess would be based on a number of caveats and assumptions (which we do not know are correct) including:

- All Grade A clubs maintain their scores (and given how close Hull FC were to the threshold, that is not a given).

- The public commentary of the above clubs is accurate and subsequently ratified by the RFL.

- Wakefield win the Championship Grand Final.

- Castleford's score is 15 or above (the club has said it is close but not that it is at that level).

If all of that is correct (and it may not be), the following clubs would be guaranteed a Super League place in 2025. 

1. Leeds Rhinos
2. Wigan Warriors
3. St Helens
4. Catalans Dragons
5. Warrington Wolves
6. Hull KR
7. Hull FC
8. Leigh Leopards
9. Wakefield Trinity
10. Castleford Tigers

What about the Grade B clubs?
There will be 12 teams in Super League in 2025.

If (and it's a big if) the above is correct, there would be two places left for the remaining Grade B teams. Those include Huddersfield Giants, Salford Red Devils, Toulouse Olympique, London Broncos and Bradford Bulls.

London Broncos have already accepted that its score will not be sufficient to maintain a Super League place, so let's discount them.

For Toulouse to make it into Super League (and they say their score has improved on 12.97), they would have to overhaul a gap of around 0.5 to Huddersfield and 0.8 to Salford (and we know Salford have enjoyed a slight uplift due to on field performance).

For Bradford, they suggest they will achieve a score of 13 or above. If it is in the lower reaches of 13 and if Huddersfield and Salford have remained static, that would not be enough.

As I said earlier, the specifics of the criteria make it impossible to judge which teams will be in Super League next year.

Is it over on Wednesday?
Not necessarily.

The RFL Operational Rules make it clear that member clubs agree not to take legal action against it. Therefore, if you see any club threatening to do so on the back of Wednesday's announcement, remember that this is highly unlikely to actually happen.

What clubs can do is apply to Sporting Resolution (an independent body) and request arbitration. The decision of the independent arbitrator would be binding.

The grading criteria state that any arbitration should be expedited due to the short time frames between now and the new season. So this could run a little whilst longer yet.

Exactly how long? That's not clear because the grading criteria does not give a timeframe for which clubs can commence arbitration.

What about 2026 and beyond?
Gradings are reviewed annually. So we get to do this all again next year and the year after, and the year after that.

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Read:

The Toxicity of the Match Officials Department

-
This morning, it was confirmed by the RFL that Head of Match Officials since 2016, Steve Ganson, has been suspended pending investigation. Under Ganson's tenure, James Child, Ian Smith, Matt Thomason, George Stokes, Sam Ansell, Phil Bentham, Richard Silverwood, Joe Cobb, Chris Campbell, Steve Presley and Mike Burnett have all left the RFL. Meanwhile, Robert Hicks has stepped down as a full-time referee, moving to a compliance role, Jack Smith stepped down as a full-time referee before returning and Ben Thaler was suspended and later reinstated in mysterious circumstances. Such a high turnover of staff in a department with relatively few staff should raise cause for concern. Especially when many departing staff have commented on their departures in such damning terms. Here are what some have said: James Child The most recently departed match official, James Child, has spoken to Forty-20 Magazine. " What I've always found difficult about refereeing are not the external press
View full blog

Have London Broncos Broken IMG?

-
I am sorry but I am about to drop the C bomb. Christmas. I know, I know, it's only October but it's coming! The time of year that products are rushed out for consumers. Some of you may find a game under your Christmas tree this year. Let's take a moment to think how it got there. Before any game hits the shelves and is played by a consumer, it is extensively 'play-tested'. This means that developers play these games repeatedly, trying all sorts of different techniques, with the intention of 'breaking' the game; finding an error that renders it flawed. When they do, it is back to the drawing board, the flaw is ironed out and you play test again. A lot of work goes in to games to ensure, to the best extent possible, they are unbreakable. This is a Rugby League blog. So what does this have to do with anything? Well, the sport is set to introduce a new licensing system from 2025 and I wondered whether IMG and the RFL have done the equivalent of play-testing the
View full blog

Silence is the loudest noise of all

-
In August 2019, Batley Bulldogs hooker Archie Bruce made his debut for the club in an away defeat against Toulouse. He never returned home. Archie died from asphyxiation (suffocation) after a team night out.  A post-mortem report revealed Archie had consumed alcohol, cocaine and had 'toxic' levels of Tramadol (a strong painkiller) in his system at the time of his death. The levels of Tramadol (a medication only available on prescription), according to an expert at Archie's inquest, was in fact double the level considered toxic and potentially fatal. Archie's inquest was told that Batley Bulldogs players used Tramadol regularly, and illegal drugs including cocaine. One member of the Batley squad told the inquest " Everyone knows [about cocaine use in the squad], you just have to keep it under wraps" . After the inquest, Archie's family called for the RFL and its member clubs to implement a robust code of conduct to ensure a similar tragedy did not occur. Th
View full blog