Judgement Day

After much talk, we have finally learned which sides will take part in Super League in 2025. The news leaked the previous day through various media outlets, meaning confirmation that Wakefield would replace London was not much of a surprise.

Some clubs have published the breakdown of their scores, meaning we can learn a little more about the, shall we say, idiosyncrasies of this new system.

Halifax are facing enormous financial difficulties and earlier this week confirmed that they face a winding up petition. Despite this, their score for financial performance under the grading system increased by 1 compared to their indicative score.

With changes to the criteria made for 2024, Hull FC have lost points as the big screen at the MKM Stadium has a pixel pitch of 20mm.

Oldham have lost points because they moved from Whitebank Stadium (akin to a school field) to Boundary Park and their new, far better stadium is less full.

Under the specifics of the criteria, Doncaster's Keepmoat Stadium secures less points than Bradford's Odsal as their broadcast gantry is 40cm too small.

Whilst these truisms may make you rub your eyes in disbelief, there are probably more significant issues to consider. And that is the fact that the criteria have an inherent incumbency bias.

Most criteria are assessed over a three year period. The top 12 teams have all been in Super League for at least two of the last three seasons. The teams in 13th and 14th have been in Super League for one of the last three seasons. The sides 15th and below have not been in Super League at all for the last three seasons. This is no coincidence.

London are prime evidence of incumbancy bias. In 2023, when they had been outside of Super League for three years, they scored 8.07 points. In 2024, with one year in Super League, that score had increased to 12.65.

Whilst London performed admirably in 2024, they finished bottom, won just three matches and had the lowest attendances in Super League. Objectively, it wasn't much to shout about. Yet this led to a significant uplift to their score.

If you compare the 2023 gradings to the 2024 gradings, the gap between 12th place and 13th place has increased. Even if Toulouse had won the Championship Grand Final they would still not have done enough to get into Super League.

The only side that have a chance of overhauling an incumbent for next year is Toulouse, currently 13th. But 2025 will be the third full season they have been outside of Super League meaning they lose the benefit of their 2022 season counting towards their average score.

To gain on Salford in 12th spot will be tougher. By contrast, RL Commercial's Rhodri Lloyd has said that Salford are set to significantly increase their score in 2025. That uphill struggle looks increasingly like a mountain.

Currently, 9 clubs have a Grade A licence which guarantees Super League rugby for as long as that score is maintained. So for clubs outside of Super League, there are less clubs to "shoot" at.

Ah, but they may increase the number of clubs in Super League, I hear you say. That can only be done by agreement of current Super League clubs.

By agreeing to expand, clubs would vote to split their central funding more. Essentially, they are being asked if they would like to lose money. No sensible business would ever agree to that proposal.

In 2025, the Super League incumbents will be the only sides who have played in the top flight for the last three years. The gap has already increased over the last 12 months. Expansion of the top flight seems unlikely.

I have refrained from making predictions about what our new criteria system would entail. Now we have seen two rounds of grading; one indicative and one live, I can now make a prediction with more confidence.

If the criteria remain the same and Super League does not expand, a new side will not enter the top flight under this system. That is unless an incumbent goes bust!