Red Cards Ruin Games - Fact or Fiction? Part II

In 2021, I did some research regarding how red cards seem to impact on results of matches. If you want to read that piece, it's available here. With four red cards shown in the opening round of Super League in 2024, I thought it was time to revisit this.

I have looked at every red card that was issued in a Super League game in 2023 (and Challenge Cup matches involving Super League teams), what time of the match it was given, what the score was at the time and what the score was at the end.

For the purpose of this piece, I have excluded Konrad Hurrell's red card for St Helens against Leeds in February 2023 and James McDonnell's red card in the reverse fixture. This is because these red cards were shown in the final five minutes of those matches.

1) Gil Dudson (Catalans v Warrington - April 2023)

Gil Dudson was sent off in this match after 66 minutes for a punch. At the time, the game was level at 14-14. In the top of the table clash, Warrington scored a late try to turn a draw into a 14-20 win.

2) Kevin Proctor (Warrington v Wakefield - April 2023)

Wakefield were holding Warrington to a 12-12 scoreline after 53 minutes, when Kevin Proctor was sent off last April. From the resulting penalty, Warrington edged ahead 14-12. The scoreboard widened after that, with Warrington running out 32-18 winners.

3) Ben Reynolds (Wakefield v Leigh - June 2023)

This was a match dominated by Leigh from start to finish. Ben Reynolds was sent off after 29 minutes, with Leigh winning 10-0. For a spell, Leigh ended up down to 11 men, with Tom Nisbett sin binned too. They ran out 4-30 winners regardless.

4) Hugo Salabio (Wakefield v Leeds - June 2023)

Wakefield were still winless at this point in 2023. They were level (10-10) with Leeds when Hugo Salabio was sent off for a tackle akin to a German suplex after 44 minutes. Wakefield went on to claim their first win of 2023, by 24-14.

5) Josh Griffin (Hull FC v St Helens - June 2023 - Cup)

In this Challenge Cup Quarter Final, Josh Griffin was sent off for dissent after the half time hooter sounded. Hull FC were level (12-12) at this point but went to to lose by 18-32.

6) Kaide Ellis (Wigan v Warrington - June 2023 - Cup)

In another Cup Quarter Final, Kaide Ellis was sent off for Wigan for a headbutt after just 6 minutes, with the game scoreless. In one of Wigan's best wins of 2023, they edged out Warrington 14-12.

7) Kai O'Donnell (York v Leigh - June 2023 - Cup)

It was a weekend of red cards in the Challenge Cup Quarter Finals last year! Kai O'Donnell was sent off for Leigh after just 5 minutes, with the score 0-0. Zak Hardaker also saw a yellow card. Despite a scare, Leigh emerged 14-34 winners, on the road to their Challenge Cup triumph.

8) Joe Shorrocks (Hull KR v Wigan - July 2023 - Cup)

There was something about the Challenge Cup and ill-discipline last year! In a tight semi final, Wigan's Joe Shorrocks was sent off for a shoulder charge after 41 minutes, with Wigan leading 4-8. It ended all square (10-10) after 80 minutes, with Hull KR kicking a drop goal in golden point to win the tie.

9) Joe Greenwood (St Helens v Huddersfield - August 2023)

You may have feared for Huddersfield in this one. They were 14-0 down against St Helens and then Joe Greenwood was sent off after 27 minutes. Huddersfield rallied and gave St Helens a scare. The score ended in a slightly flattering manner in favour of St Helens, who won 32-18 (the same gap as before Greenwood's red).

Conclusions

The evidence of what happens post a sending off seems to suggest that they the outcome is not determined by a dismissal.

Of nine matches where red cards were shown last year (pre 75 minutes), the side that was reduced to 12 men won on five of those occasions. In four of those five matches, the side who lost a man were not winning at the time of the dismissal.

We may see more red cards in 2024, but based on what we have seen over the last few years, I wouldn't go reaching for the remote! These games are still very much alive!