13 Questions for 2024

Happy New Year! As we enter January 2024, we can say that the Rugby League season will return with the 1895 Cup at the end of this month and that the new Super League season is just six weeks away. As I do every year, here are the questions that I think will define 2024!

1. Will a new Wigan era of dominance begin?

Wigan enter the new season as champions. Ominously for their rivals, their squad looks stronger for 2024, with the signings of Adam Keighran, Kruise Leeming, Sam Walters and Luke Thompson to name but four.

A special occasion awaits as Wigan host Penrith in the World Club Challenge in February. And then attention will turn to retaining their Super League crown. With the strength of their squad, they will be favourites to go back-to-back.

2. Will Hull KR challenge for the Super League title?

Hull KR made major strides forward in 2023, with a fourth place finish and a Challenge Cup final appearance. Willie Peters made a strong start to his career as a head coach and has also strengthened his side heavily for 2024.

The likes of Gildart, Hiku, May, Evalds, Whitbread and Tanganoa joining the club are a signal of intent. They now have both depth and strength. Privately, they will be aiming to break a long run without a major trophy.

3. Will there be a shake up of the other challengers?

Whilst Wigan and Hull KR look stronger, I'd suggest last year's other two semi finalists look weaker.

Catalans have lost eight players, at least six of whom would have made the club's strongest 17 in 2023. They have been replaced with five signings. But the likes of Theo Fages have struggled with injury in recent years. Perhaps more reliance will be placed on French talent going forward. It would be a major achievement for Catalans to finish in the top 2 again.

As for St Helens, when you lose a player of the class of James Roby, you will be weaker. He is irreplaceable (though Clark is as good of a replacement as there is going). There also appears to a gap at centre. Whitley is a good signing too but it's hard to argue that St Helens enter the new season in a stronger position than 12 months ago.

4. How will London approach 2024?

With an indicative ranking of 24 in the new licensing system, London know that their stay in Super League will be for 12 months only. I cannot recall another example of a team entering a season with relegation as good as confirmed before a ball is kicked. No matter what they do or fail to do, an immediate return to the Championship is a near certainty. 

That is reflected in their recruitment. Of seven new signings, three are from League 1 clubs, two are from the Championship, one was a free agent and just one was an existing Super League player.

London have nothing to lose so may choose to play with a freedom rarely afforded to a sporting team playing notionally competitive matches. Equally, their squad is by far the weakest in Super League and with no possibility of survival, it could be hard to watch at times.

5. Will Castleford and Leigh focus turn to off field matters?

Castleford recently received new financial investment. I was interested to see new coach Craig Lingard say how this would be invested off-field rather than in the playing budget. 

Castleford are one of the Super League sides at risk of being demoted under the new licensing system. Under this system, there is little difference between finishing 11th or 12th, so their focus may turn elsewhere, to best preserve their Super League status. After a poor 2023, which saw Castleford fight relegation, patience for poor performances would be thin on the terraces.

If the new licensing system was introduced in 2024, Leigh would have been relegated despite winning the Challenge Cup and finishing 5th. They will lose some "IMG points" in the 2024 gradings unless they retain the Challenge Cup, so need to make these up elsewhere to survive. Again, Leigh's priority this year may be to increase turnover or crowds. You could argue strong on field performance is a pre-requisite to that though.

6. What does the future hold for Salford?

Salford have faced well-documented financial troubles lately. They also have secured a 12 month extension to stay at their AJ Bell Stadium home. Strong on field performances in recent year have put Salford on the precipice of a "Grade A" indicative license so their Super League status should be safe for 2025.

But comments from CEO Paul King and the sale of the likes of Brodie Croft and Andy Ackers serve only to highlight the peril they face. Losing two of their best players means 2024 may be more challenging on the field too.

7. Will Wakefield dominate the Championship?

I cannot recall a side being relegated to have such a feel-good factor surrounding it. That is largely due to Matt Ellis' takeover and an aggressive recruitment strategy (for both players and backroom / coaching staff).

Wakefield's public has backed the club with strong season ticket sales reported. You would expect a year of dominance for Wakefield. Based on their indicative grading and expected 'bonus' points if they can win the Championship and 1895 Cup, an immediate return to Super League appears likely.

8. Is a Featherstone decline about to begin?

For years, Featherstone have had chance after chance to earn on field promotion and have failed to deliver when it counts. With the door to on-field promotion now closed, a route to Super League seems a long way away.

Consequently, the playing budget has been cut significantly. We have got rather used to seeing Featherstone around the top of the Championship. 2024 may be the year that this changes.

9. Are Bradford back?

There is a change of strategy from Bradford in 2024. There will be no dual registration deal for the new season with a Super League club. Many observes feel that a lack of consistency in the playing squad last year (an inevitable consequence of a dual registration deal) led to disharmony.

On the field, Bradford had their strongest performance for several years in 2023. In terms of an indicative licensing grade, Bradford were outsiders for a Super League spot, but were not too far away. They probably will not be in Super League in 2025 but the foundations for a return are being laid.

10. Will Oldham fulfil their ambitions?

Another club to have received a financial boost is Oldham. They have assembled a squad far stronger than anyone else in League 1. Barring a disaster, Oldham will almost certainly return to the Championship in 2025. 

Oldham has produced so many players over the years, and so many international class players. A strong Oldham would be a major bonus for the sport as a whole (and a return to a proper stadium, Boundary Park, in the town itself is an excellent starting point).

11. Who will be in Super League in 2025?

Come the end of the 2024 season, we will not know who will take part in Super League in 2025. This will be the first 'proper' round of licensing. The licenses will then be reviewed annually, post-season (this seems to fly in the face of a system which prides itself on stability, but I digress).

Based on the indicative grades, it looks as though there will be two places to go between Castleford, Leigh, Wakefield, Toulouse and London. The latter will almost certainly miss out, two of the remaining four will be disappointed.

It's hard to predict who will miss out, but brace yourself for an almighty public fall-out, appeals and threats of legal action when the make up of Super League in 2025 is announced.

12. Will League 1 exist in 2025?

Depressingly, I was asking the same question this time last year. League 1 just about made it into 2024. But we lost London Skolars from the league in the meantime. This, combined with West Wales' withdrawal in 2023 and Newcastle only just making it to the start line this year, shows that the league is clinging on by its fingertips.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the league is not viable. But, equally a 23 team Championship doesn't seem viable if you were to merge the two leagues. A solution is needed but there is not an obvious one.

13. Will England play an international?

Another question that we were asking 12 months ago! Whilst the RFL did manage to secure a test series against Tonga in 2023, our prospective opponents in 2024, Samoa, have withdrawn from a planned tour.

Talks are reportedly ongoing to revive the series but it appears a long shot. With no competitive opposition for England in the Northern Hemisphere, this is a problem that is likely to recur year-on-year.