Making 1st Place Mean More

"So much to cover before kick off here. Before we get into the story of today's game which is Leeds Rhinos playing for their season... a word on Wigan". These were Brian Carney's opening words to the Leeds v Wigan clash on Saturday afternoon on Sky Sports.

"Hang on", I thought? With a win, Wigan go to the top of the league. With a Wigan win, we have three sides locked together on 36 points at the top, separated by points difference alone with two weeks of the season to go. 

Meanwhile, Leeds had a minuscule chance of making the play offs even with a win. Why are Leeds the story of this match? Why is our attention on the side who sit in 8th place, whose season was pretty much already over? 

Why are Wigan, Catalans and St Helens; the best teams in the league, not the centre of attention? And the most pertinent question of all, why were Carney's comments correct? The reason is because there is no material reward for the side that comes out on top of this three way battle.

Does It Matter?

Under our current play off system, there is no material difference between finishing in first place and finishing in second place. Both sides skip the first week and get a home semi final. The side who finishes first gets a semi final tie against lower-ranked opposition (though given variables such as form, that is nothing more than a theoretical advantage).

Let's look at the statistics. The side who has finished in first place has gone on to win the Grand Final on 44% of occasions, the side who finishes second has won the Grand Final on 36% of occasions. The difference between the top two spots is quite small. And remember that this takes into account the 'top 5' system, in place from 1998 - 2001 and again in 2019, which was heavily weighted in favour of top spot.

Let's now look at home advantage in semi finals. In play off matches where a place at the Grand Final awaited the winners, the home side has won on 74% of occasions, compared to 26% for the away side.

This suggests that home advantage is not a myth. For this reason, given our current system, perhaps our greater focus should not be on which side of Wigan, St Helens and Catalans finishes first, but which misses out on the top two.

Differing Perceptions

Like it or not, perception matters in life. It's no different in Rugby League. And I don't think we do ourselves any favours. The prize for finishing first is increased prize money (which means little to fans) and a rather unstated trophy, which has been frequently mocked as a 'hubcap'. 

Whilst the authorities do not do the League Leaders due service, neither do the fans. I found it to be rather unbecoming when Castleford were mocked for celebrating an incredible achievement of being the best side in the Northern Hemisphere over the course of a six month competition in 2017.

The net result of that was when St Helens finished first in 2018, they stood like statues, without a flicker of emotion, for fear of mocking. Their expressions were fixed as though they were at a funeral, rather than celebrating something meaningful.

Why First Past the Post Can't Work in Rugby League, right now

A first past the post system works excellently, say, in Premier League football. That is because there is a meaningful secondary prize of European football open to the top seven sides (and those competing for it), relegation for the bottom three sides (and the threat of it for usually at least two further sides).

We have not had a meaningful secondary prize in the Rugby League since 1998, and from 2024, the sport has decided that relegating the lowest performing side is no longer the correct approach.

Without that meaningful, secondary prize and without relegation, in the absence of play offs, there would be little for at least three quarters of the league to compete for in large parts of the season.

In the cold context of sporting equity, that's not a problem. You could say we should focus on and reward the best. But it's not that simple. 

We rely on being a form of entertainment. We already have rocky finances. By taking away even a theoretical hope of success and a major event such as the Grand Final, you would achieve that equity but at a major, perhaps even unaffordable, cost.

What of alternatives? The only other professional league in the world apart from Super League is the NRL. The physical and competitive distance between the the UK and Australia makes a 'Champions League' style competition impracticable. The annual back-and-forth to arrange a World Club Challenge proves it. 

Those of a particular vintage will remember the old Premiership Final with great fondness. However, the reality is that, if you remember it, you will be at least 35 years old. More than one generation of fans will never have seen one. It means nothing to them.

We could bring back this style of competition. I cannot see this achieving much though. Whilst finishing top of the league means little now, if that side won the championship, would the re-introduction of a Premiership-style competition now be seen as a booby prize?

Our play off crowds are already lower than an average round of Super League, and that's when the main prize is up for grabs. If you put a secondary prize on offer, then logically crowds would drop further and, if you kept the match at Old Trafford, you risk a sparse crowd, a damp squib and worst of all, a financial black hole.

Redressing the Balance

The first change we should make is both a semantic and a simple one. Award a proper trophy and not a Shield which resembles a paperweight and has becoming a point of disdain.

I would have the side who finishes first represent Super League in the World Club Challenge, irrespective of play off performance. This would act as a meaningful reward for the table-topping side. It doesn't redress the balance but it is a start. 

We should be set for a nail-biting, tension-filled end to the season. We last saw a three way last-day of the season battle for the League Leaders' Shield in 2015. If you're reading this you no doubt remember Ryan Hall running down the touchline for the winner, his face screaming with joy.

What you may not remember is what happened two minutes earlier. Leeds kicked a penalty to level the match. A loss would have led to an away semi final and third place, a draw would have secured a home semi final and second place but a win would have secured first place. 

Leeds decided that the best option was to settle for second, rather than push for first. Objectively, particularly given the 'home advantage' which seems to exist in play off semi finals, this was the right call. But you must question whether a system which encourages teams to settle for second best is the right one.

As it turned out, a once-in-a-lifetime set of circumstances fell into place which did see Leeds finish top.

This year, we may see Wigan, Catalans and St Helens playing on Friday 22nd September perhaps with the League Leadership swapping hands as the night progresses. It should be a seismic night for the sport.

I find it hard to get excited about it though when the events that will occur in the following three weeks, will ultimately render the remainder of the regular season meaningless. 

As with all things in Rugby League, it's easy to identify the problems, it's less easy to identify the solutions, especially once you go beyond an idealistic view and consider the practicalities and consequences of any decisions.