Shaking Up Super League!

At this stage of the season, I usually write a blogpost about the initial impressions of the new Super League season. In both 2021 and 2022, I believed that we were heading for more of the same. The old guard continuing their dominance. In 2023, it's a different story.

All sides have played four matches (apart from two) and we have just two 100% win records and two sides yet to taste victory. We have had some surprise results and the top of the table is looking very different.

It's early days, but Warrington's decision to back Daryl Powell after a disastrous 2022 looks to be a savvy one. Warrington have spent big for years and always fallen short. The management at Warrington have backed Powell's long-term vision of overhauling the squad for 2023. George Williams looks like the player we all know again, abetted by the reliable if less spectacular Josh Drinkwater.

The pack with Sam Kasiano, Paul Vaughan, James Harrison, Tom Mikaele and Josh Maguire (yet to play) offers size and depth. To Warrington's credit, younger players from their academy are also being given an opportunity, something the club have been criticised for failing to do in the past. 

Warrington have navigated tricky away ties against Huddersfield and Hull KR (no mean feat) and now have a favourable run of fixtures before playing Catalans (away), Wigan (home) and St Helens (away) during a challenging April. I suspect that may tell us a lot about Warrington's title credentials.

The only other side who are unbeaten are Catalans. The club have dealt with a lot of injuries so far in 2023 yet remain unbeaten. Most impressive was Catalans away win at Wigan, their first since 2011. Even more impressive? Of the 17 man squad, 11 were French born.

Catalans have been known for poor discipline, a lack of patience and an ability to crumble when the going gets tough. That was especially evident in Catalans' final game of 2022 in the play offs against Leeds. Catalans crumbled into bad habits, Leeds stayed calm and finished the job. Thursday's win against Wigan showed a side very different to last year. Catalans' have enjoyed their best ever start to a Super League campaign.

And what of last year's top 2? Wigan have a 50% record, having won two and lost two and St Helens have lost two from their opening three. I have no doubt that both of these sides will have their say as the season goes on but they are not the obvious frontrunners as they have been for most of the past few seasons.

It's interesting to note that when a Super League side wins a World Club Challenge, the year that follows is often a struggle. Take the last two British sides to win. In 2017, Wigan won the World Club Challenge, then missed out on the play offs. In 2013, Leeds won the World Club Challenge and missed out on the Grand Final (having made 5 of the last 6).

That can't be an excuse though as Leeds won the Super League in both 2008 and 2012 having won the World Club Challenge that year.

But eras of dominance don't last forever. St Helens will not win the league ad infinitum. With the influential James Roby approaching retirement and the loss of Kristian Woolf, maybe things will be tougher this year? Can St Helens make it five in a row? They have a good chance despite a poor start. But it won't be the procession to first place that we saw in 2018, 2019 and 2022.

Wigan's start to the year has also been hit and miss. They have brushed aside Wakefield and Castleford (the only two sides without a win) but spluttered against two better sides. The jury is firmly out so far. I've often felt Wigan as a team are greater than the sum of their parts, which is credit to their team spirit and coaching staff. Their next five fixtures are against Huddersfield, Salford, Leigh, St Helens and Warrington. We'll know more about Wigan's prospects at the end of that run.

The last Super League side to survive relegation having being promoted was Hull KR in 2018. Leigh's start to the season will give them plenty of heart and hope that they can be the next. Two wins from four is an excellent start (especially with those wins being at Hull KR away and St Helens at home; two difficult challenges).

Their squad is undoubtedly of Super League quality, the challenge was always going to be whether they would gel and it looks as though they have done so quickly. Even in defeats, they narrowly lost to Salford and Catalans and were far from disgraced.

To survive in Super League you need just one team to be worse than you. That means something different each year. In 2019, London Broncos won 10 matches and it still wasn't enough. Toulouse would have needed 10 wins to survive last year. In other years, just six wins would be enough.

I suspect it will be far fewer wins that 10 needed to survive this year! Wakefield have failed to score a single point since round 1 and you can't play for a 0-0 in Rugby League! Castleford have only scored two tries in their last three matches, were abysmal in defeat to Huddersfield and have a very aging squad.

That leaves Huddersfield, Hull KR, Leeds, Hull FC and Salford who I haven't specifically mentioned so far. These are all sides who will harbour play off ambitions but realistically only two of them will make it. All of these sides sit on four points but will perceive that differently. Salford fans will be abound with optimism after Saturday's win, Hull FC fans may feel like its the same old. Huddersfield, having played one game fewer, have a 2 from 3 win record. Leeds look to be stabilising after a poor start and Hull KR have won matches you would expect them to lose and lose matches you would expect them to win.

That's exactly what we want to see! We have a league table that looks very different to how we would expect, especially compared to recent years, where at the top and bottom at least, little changed from the early rounds. Is 2023 the year that Super League will be shaken up into a new order?