The Rise of the Underdog

It's been a few years in Super League since the play off semi finals have been competitive. Since 2018, the winning margins have been 28, 18, 27, 46, 24 and 30 points. In 2022, 1st plays 6th and 2nd plays 5th for a spot at Old Trafford. But with 5th and 6th being the form sides in the competition, the semi finals may not have such a one sided look this year.

In this week's two blogposts, we're going to look at the play off semi finals from differing perspectives. This one looks at why 5th placed Leeds and 6th placed Salford may cause their semi final opponents quite a headache.

Salford

I think we're guilty of over-analysing in Rugby League at times. We can often look too deeply at the game, get too embedded in so called 'philosophies' and miss something right under our noses. After all, as the famous quote begins: "Rugby League is a simple game, played by simple people". I'll let you finish off the second part...

In that spirit of simplicity, Salford's attack is brilliant. When they get on a role, they can be white hot. In recent weeks, they have scored 28, 50, 46, 33 and 44 points in matches. Quite often, a lot of these points come in short spells. The first 20 minutes against Huddersfield and Castleford being particular examples.

Their attack is spear-headed by Steve Prescott Man of Steel nominee, Brodie Croft. With his blistering end of season form, it can be forgotten that he actually started the season quite poorly and threatened to underwhelm. Yet when he settled, many a club looked on with envy and what they could have had.

His absence for the semi final following a failed HIA will be a blow. But, with Ryan Brierley, Marc Sneyd and Andy Ackers in pivot positions and exciting outside backs in Deon Cross, Ken Sio, Tim Lafai and Joe Burgess, they have plenty of firepower.

Where Salford have not receive due credit in recent weeks is their defence. St Helens scored just 12 points against them in July, Huddersfield couldn't trouble the scoreboard at the weekend. Catalans and Castleford have struggled too.

Having a firing attack is great but without a solid defence, you'll struggle to win a play off. Salford do have that steel in defence. They also have nothing to lose. They won't be conservative against St Helens on Saturday and will be backed by a huge travelling army of support. It may be 1st vs 6th, but don't let that fool you into thinking that 6th placed Salford will be here to make up the numbers.

Leeds

Sitting just behind Salford in the form table are Leeds. They have enjoyed a resurgence under Rohan Smith, since he took the reigns in May.

Salford have been flashy but what has impressed me about Leeds towards the latter part of the year is their mentality. In the early months of the season, they looked like a side who didn't know how to win. Boy, has that changed!

Trailing by eight to Castleford in a do-or-die final round. There was no panic. Leeds kicked a penalty to reduce the arrears to six. Smart play from cool heads as they went on to win. A stirring comeback win against Catalans in July, a last minute win over Huddersfield. Leeds are a side that won't ever give up and are willing to go to the last to get the spoils.

In Friday's play off against Catalans, I was impressed with their discipline. Catalans had four players either sin binned or sent off and Leeds had zero. In the face of extreme provocation, Leeds kept their heads calm and did the job.

Discipline is an area where Leeds have not impressed this year, picking up an inordinate amount of suspensions. Yet on Friday, the usually hot-headed James Bentley managed to stay on the right side of the thin blue line and Zane Tetevano simply stayed away from any flashpoints at all.

But Wigan away in a semi final is a different prospect altogether. A far tougher challenge that the likes of Catalans, Huddersfield and Castleford that Leeds have faced in recent weeks.

In Leeds' favour, Wigan are without Liam Farrell and potentially Cade Cust and Sam Powell. Farrell's absence especially is a hammer blow. He has been sensational in 2022 and every bit as key to their success as the more eye-catching Bevan French and Jai Field. Cust has got better as the year has gone on too.

Leeds should also welcome back Ash Handley and Harry Newman, tipping this contest to a more even one. Much like Salford, Leeds could never have reasonably expected to reach this stage of the season, so have little to lose. Sides with such a mentality always pose a tricky test.

If both Leeds and Salford do win, we will see a Grand Final between 5th and 6th place, involving two sides who have lost nearly 50% of their fixtures in 2022, one of whom would become champions. Is that right? Does it undermine the previous 27 rounds? I think it does. But that's a conversation for another day. This week is all about enjoying what promises to be a great couple of semi finals.