It's All About Squad Management

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Wigan's victory over rivals St Helens last night saw the Warriors secure second place in the Super League table and guarantee a home semi final, with a chance at returning to Old Trafford for the Grand Final if they win that game.

Under the current play off system, there is little difference between finishing first and second. Both get a home semi final which, if won, brings with it a place in the Grand Final. The side finishing first gets the tie against the lower-ranking opponent, which is an advantage on the face of it, but depending on form of the respective sides, may not truly be the case.

St Helens and Wigan have proven that they are the best sides in the competition this season. Both have 100% home records and, whilst both still have home matches to play, perfection is likely to persist.

This is significant. What is also significant is that both sides have their home semi finals guaranteed before fixture congestion kicks in. That means that instead of having to go all out in playing three games in seven days, they can 'manage' their squads. Anyone who is jaded can be rested. Anyone carrying a knock won't be risked. Any player liable to picking up a one match suspension and missing a key play off game can have that risk removed.

Leeds and Salford are two of the form sides in Super League at the moment. At present, they do not have such a luxury. They will have to play three games in a week, then an elimination play off to even reach an away semi final. Meanwhile, St Helens and Wigan can stroll leisurely towards the play offs, then have a week off before the semi final.

Those are huge advantages and act as a cautionary tale towards the prospects of the two sides from a possible three, still battling for their play off places. It's also why Leeds will be keen to do the job against Catalans on Monday. A win will secure a play off spot and give the option of rotation for Saturday's match against Castleford. That's if Leeds choose to do that. More later...

Salford will also be desperate for a win on Monday against Castleford. A victory, combined with their superior points difference, would all but guarantee a play off place. That option of squad management would also become available.

Monday's match for Catalans at home to Leeds is also big for the home side. It is far from the realms of possibility that Catalans lose both remaining matches to Leeds at home and Wigan away. If that happens, and Leeds were to beat Castleford on the final day, Leeds would secure 4th spot and a home play off tie. The possibility of another away trip to France, or one to Huddersfield (who have lost just once this year at home) would be excluded. So, perhaps a Leeds win on Monday would mean that the Rhinos would have to go all out in both remaining matches, regardless.

Huddersfield have a better set of fixtures that Catalans and look a pretty safe bet for a 3rd placed finish, their highest since 2016. Ian Watson cannot impact who finishes in 6th place and travels to the John Smiths Stadium for the eliminator. What he can do is minimise the impact of an intense period of fixtures. I have little doubt that he will do this.

So where do we stand? Take a look our Twitter thread below for all of the permutations!


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