IN FOCUS: Relegation Battle

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In 2021, the Super League relegation battle was a damp squib. It took Leigh Centurions until 22nd August to win their first match at home against Salford. By that point, relegation was a near-certainty and when it was finally confirmed that Leigh would return to the Championship, it was hardly even noticed.

Toulouse were promoted in their place and disaster struck before the season had even begun. Their best players Johnathon Ford and Mark Kheirallah left on the eve of the season, unable to play due to France's rules prohibiting those not vaccinated against COVID-19 from participating in professional sport. A cruel irony being that these rules were lifted shortly after the season had started. You sensed that the damage was done.

Losing two of your most creative players would harm any club. Imagine St Helens without Jonny Lomax or James Roby. Wigan without Jai Field and Bevan French. Warrington without George Williams and Gareth Widdop. Ok, that last one was a bad example!

Yet, with just five games to go in the season, it is still possible that any of three sides could get relegated, let's take a look at each side in turn!

Warrington

Remaining fixtures: Toulouse (H), Leeds (A), Castleford (H), Huddersfield (A), Salford (A)
Current points: 14

Warrington have had a dreadful 2022. To even be talked about in a relegation scrap is a humiliation to a club of such ambition and wealth. However, a win on Thursday against Toulouse would put them six points clear with a better points difference. Safety would be all but secured.

Warrington have lost matches from winning positions in recent weeks. Had they been a plucky underdog like Toulouse, you would consider them unfortunate. The experience and talent of the team means that they are, rightly, are not permitted such slack. Despite an awful year, relegation still seems a highly unlikely prospect.

Wakefield

Remaining fixtures: Wigan (H), Hull FC (A), Hull KR (H), St Helens (A), Huddersfield (A)
Current points: 12

If Wakefield win just one of their remaining five matches, then Toulouse would need at least two wins and a better points difference than Trinity to survive. If Wakefield win two matches, then it's probably a bridge too far for Toulouse.

Unfortunately for Wakefield, they are (in the main) playing sides with either a play off place or League Leaders' Shield to challenge for. Perhaps when they play Huddersfield, they may face a side with one eye on a home elimination semi final the next week. If Wakefield's Super League status is at stake, the imbalance of importance of that fixture makes it winnable.

The one fixture with a big red ring around it in Wakefield's calendar must be Hull KR at home. Hull KR are crippled with injuries (more so than other teams) and it is the kind of fixture you need to win when your Super League status is at risk.

Toulouse

Remaining fixtures: Warrington (A), Wigan (A), Catalans (H), Hull FC (A), St Helens (A)
Current points: 10

Toulouse will probably need two wins to stay up, maybe even three. Toulouse have not won an away match this season and face four away matches from their last five. So, on the face of it, it's quite hard to see where these wins come from. But, if we dig deeper, it is do-able.

They say of relegation threatened teams that you must win your home matches. Toulouse's final home match is against Catalans. A tough match? Yes. But Catalans are shaky at the minute and an off-day can never be ruled out.

Where else may a win come? I'd say St Helens! Bear with me here! St Helens Head Coach Kristian Woolf has already declared that winning the League Leaders' Shield is a low priority. Regardless of how things stand, I expect St Helens to play a reserve side that week to rest their big players for the play offs and avoid the risk of any suspensions. This opens the door for Toulouse, should they still be in the fight come the last day.

But in order for that to happen, they will need at least one more win before the last day at least. Does that make Thursday's match against Warrington do-or-die? Not quite. But it's pretty close to it!

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