Squeezing the Gap?

In mid April, I wrote a blogpost entitled "Mind the Gap?". At that stage, the 2021 season appeared to be falling into the same patterns as the 2018 - 2020 seasons, a duopoly of St Helens and Wigan with a group of challengers trailing somewhat. We are now 10 rounds into the Super League season and a slightly different picture is developing.

In April, St Helens and Wigan were both unbeaten but neither had appeared convincing. They looked to be different sides to those who cruised to the Grand Final in 2020 with ease. In the interim, those cracks have widened.

St Helens have won seven from nine in Super League this year. All of those wins (bar one) have come against the sides who currently occupy places 8 to 12 in Super League. It is the same story in the Challenge Cup, three wins from three, two of which are against lower-ranking teams. The exception to the rule are two victories against Hull FC, in both league and cup.

St Helens, when facing 1st placed Catalans and 3rd placed Warrington, have fallen short. Saints' defence is incredible, they have conceded an average of 8.5 points per game in Super League in 2021. This record, is far superior to any other side and, if maintained, will give them a chance in any game that they play.

Where the Saints struggle more is in attack. They have struggled to breakdown some of the lesser-fancied sides for large periods of matches and relied on superior fitness and relentlessness to see them home. You get the feeling that St Helens need more spark in attack, if they are to retain their title for a third season.

There is a similar story at Wigan. They made their best ever start to a Super League season, yet still spluttered. Despite this, when they faced a highly-motivated Hull FC side in the Challenge Cup, they were second best and a victory always appeared unlikely. Wigan's last match against Catalans was a chastening 48-0 away defeat. The suspected frailties were exposed in the most brutal of manners.

The fixture list so far this season has been skewed, with Super League keen to keep the 'big' clubs away from each other for as long as possible, in the hope that more fans could attend these matches. St Helens, Warrington and Wigan were / are due to play each other in a three week period, as a consequence.

We will learn a lot about the St Helens - Wigan duopoly over the next few weeks. Don't get me wrong, These sides have been here, done it, won it. I am far from writing them off (Wigan have only lost 1 Super League game this year) - but they are here to be shot at this year, in a way that they were not in 2020.

The Contenders

If there are vulnerabilities amongst the competition's two most dominant teams, the obvious question is by whom? Attention will obviously focus on Catalans Dragons. They beat St Helens and Wigan at home in consecutive weeks, no mean feat, the latter was especially impressive.

Catalans have always been a side that you would associate with inconsistency. I saw little evidence of that changing when they blew a big lead, to limp past Hull KR in golden point, in round 1. Since then, Catalans built nicely, growing in each performance into a side that are now considered as contenders.

The history of the Catalan Dragons suggest that they are never more than a couple of games away from an implosion. I wonder if the experiences of 2020 have changed that? Catalans, historically, have terrible away form, but a season on the road forced them to adapt. And the burden of travelling in a pandemic has continued into 2021. Steve McNamara has actively downplayed this and refused to use is as an excuse. They are now reaping the rewards for that.

Catalans have emerged from a tough run of fixtures with maximum points and their fixture list in the next six weeks contains fixtures you would expect them to win. If Catalans do continue their winning run, prove they can be consistent, their confidence will grow and they may have a real tilt at a maiden Super League title. They key for Catalans will be a home semi final, because that is a fixture that no side would want.

What about Warrington?

Warrington are an equally puzzling side. At times, they look magnificent. At others, awful. Take last night's success against St Helens - their fourth in a row against their rivals. Warrington have developed a tactical blueprint that frustrates and stifles St Helens. The champions cannot seem to find a release from that chokehold.

Warrington's forward pack matched their counterparts, they kicked excellently. The Wire executed a patient and disciplined game plan to secure an impressive win. Warrington are also the only side to defeat Catalans this season and have done it twice. Those wins came in similar circumstances, choking their opponents out of the game.

It is quite hard to believe that this is the same side that trailed by huge margins to Huddersfield in Super League in May and to Castleford in this month's Challenge Cup semi finals by half time. The contrast in Warrington's performances may suggest an attitude problem - does complacency set in when Warrington face an opponent they would expect to beat?

If it does, that may be even more concerning because if you are complacent going into a semi final, then how can you expect to secure a much sought after first Super League title?

It is without question that Warrington have the ability to challenge. They have proven that in 2021. They are also capable of abject collapses. If that continues, then it is hard to see them finishing in the top two, which would provide a far easier route to the Grand Final.

On the other hand, if they continue to churn out impressive performances with greater consistency, then they as likely as any side to be crowned champions at the end of the season.

Where are we now?

A lot can change in a couple of months as we have seen. At present, it is fair to say that we have four sides who can rightfully consider themselves as title contenders. With fixtures piling up in the next few weeks, it will be interesting to see who copes with it the best.

Some may up their game, others may fall by the wayside. It may even be the case that all four sides will continue trodding the same path, leaving more questions than answers.

Whatever happens, it is good for the competition that a clear favourite is yet to emerge. The challenge for these four sides is to be the one to rise to the challenge in the coming weeks and months.