Time to redraw the expansion roadmap?

The Rugby League World Cup is coming in 2021! The tournament received a boost last week with the Government's announcement that fans will be permitted to return to stadiums in some capacity from May and in full capacity from June (virus dependent, of course).

When it comes to to the pandemic and our Government's response, there have been times that promised dates have lapsed and just when it seems the corner has been turned, there is a nasty surprise lurking. With spring coming and vaccines rolling, now is the time that we may, finally, be able to look to the not too distant future with a hint of optimism.

Speaking of optimism, the Rugby League World Cup in October is quite the opportunity for the sport. We will be part of a year of big sporting events and come the autumn our sport will have its entire tournament broadcast on free-to-air TV. This presents an opportunity for us to reach an audience that we usually would not.

Since 1995, we have hosted three World Cups. If the sport was in a stronger position, then other nations apart from the UK and Australia could host a tournament of this size. We aren't there yet, so let's enjoy world class sport on our doorstep.

The 1995 tournament was the first to have an 'expanded' format including 10 teams. Hopes were low. Blowout scores were feared, empty stadiums a scourge and the Super League war hanging like a sword of Damocles over the metaphorical head of the tournament.

We cannot hide from it. There were some blowout scores. But the negatives were far outweighed by thrilling encounters, such as a one-point New Zealand victory over Tonga at Wilderspool. A tournament average crowd of over 17,000 per game were intrigued by the prospect of seeing lesser-spotted talented south-sea island nations, for example.

There was scepticism about the home nations not performing under the 'Great Britain' umbrella, with England and Wales going it alone. For Wales especially, this was a blessing. Superstars such as Jonathan Davies supplemented emerging talent such as Iestyn Harris and Keiron Cunningham in a super squad.

A packed Vetch Field in Swansea played host to one of the tournament's highlights, a brilliant encounter between Wales and Western Samoa. Over 15,000 passionate fans packed in to witness a historic occasion.

Wales made it to the semi-final stage of the tournament and narrowly lost out to England at Old Trafford. There was still room for Great Britain in the years that followed, but the possibility of a an Anglo-Welsh rivalry developing alongside that was a tantilising prospect.

Rugby league in Wales has a long and complex history, with many of the game's legends being of Welsh heritage and 'coming north'. If you have not seen the BBC's 'codebreakers' documentary, it is available on iPlayer until the end of month and explores this complex relationship and the sacrifices made by so many to play this sport.

South Wales, in particular, has a lot in common with the history and heartlands of rugby league. An entrenched rugby psyche in the heart of industrial Britain, which by 1995, had seen the support of industrial prosperity removed, with little to replace it. South Wales and rugby league seemed a natural fit.

So after the World Cup, South Wales RLFC were formed. The sport was attempting to capitalise on the roots planted. In typical rugby league style, by 1997, the club had disbanded. The club had no kit for the first 3 games and played in the national team's strip and played matches across three venues in Port Talbot, Swansea and Cardiff in just one year.

Crowds were poor to start with and got worse. Despite a strong mid-table finish in the second division, by the season's end, just 400 fans were there to see South Wales defeat York. 

I applaud the ambition of attempting to form the club, but it failed. The key question is why? It turned out that whilst there was public appetite to watch a strong national team at a large, famous stadium, there is no such appetite to watch part-time players playing in the second division in little more than a playing field. Who knew?

We had the opportunity to make a footprint in Wales after the 1995 World Cup. What happened proved that rugby league does not know what to do with success.

Take London as another example. Many say that London has failed as a 40-year experiment. I disagree. Rugby league has failed London, rather than London failing rugby league. London have never set down roots and their trail near enough runs from Mile End to Ealing from Brixton to Bounds Green (or something like that). This is not conducive to a successful operation.

Instead of looking at what has failed, let's look at what has succeeded. For at least the summer era, the best international crowds we have had in England are for matches held in London. In recent times, 67,000 fans saw England face New Zealand in the 2013 Rugby League World Cup semi final. You know the game, I can't bring myself to type out the ending to that match.

That match is the greatest game of rugby league I have ever seen. Whilst England lost, the semi-final at Wembley was a roaring success. So what happened? We have not played an international match at Wembley since.

Yes, we have played Challenge Cup finals at Wembley annually. However, the appeal of two northern towns that locals will often not have heard of does not have the appeal of watching the national team. It also does not provide an entity in which local fans can invest in, only a national team can do that. If you can't emotionally invest, there is far less appeal.

We have played international matches in London since, but not since 2016. We can ask why rugby league has not made an impact in London. But when you know international matches involving England draw strong local crowds in the capital and then do not send England to play a game there in five years, you do not deserve to succeed.

A less significant, but not insignificant example is Bristol. The USA played Cook Islands in Bristol in the 2013 World Cup, in front of a full stadium and enthusiastic crowd. If you were a Bristolian and loved what you saw, tough. There has not been a professional game played in the city since. In 2021, if you wanted to see semi-professional action, the nearest clubs are in West Wales and Coventry. If you wanted to see top-flight action, the nearest club is in Warrington.

If you were a Bristolian who loved attending that World Cup game in 2013, you may have given up having realised that you would need to travel across the country to see another match. The Bristol Bears who have transformed themselves from second-tier outfit to Premiership leaders in rugby union probably offer a greater appeal.

After the 1995 World Cup, we tried to build on our success and failed. In 2013, we did even worse, we did not even bother to try. 

We should commit to 1 international per year in London, as a minimum. We should have played an England v Wales or France match in Bristol in 2014. What did we do to capitalise on the 2013 World Cup success instead? Zero. England did not play another international at home until 24 October 2015, almost two years after the tournament's conclusion.

Instead, we tried to expand League 1 by including clubs in Gloucestershire and Oxford without any strategic thought. We repeated the mistakes of 1995 instead of building on our successes.

Our expansion aims should not be curtailed in the face of repeated failure. It should be fine-tuned. All of the evidence is before us and we have chosen to ignore it. Want to expand into new cities? Play internationals there. A crowd of new fans (who may not be too knowledgeable about the sport) would be larger and gain far greater enjoyment in watching England defeat France than a yawning crowd with yawning gaps in Leigh.

This isn't all doom and gloom. When expansion is done patiently, we do it right. Look at Newcastle. Pre-pandemic, a concerted investment in player pathways saw a big expansion of the junior game in the North East and, in turn, higher crowds for Newcastle Thunder.

They have bold ambitions to not just make, but win Super League by the start of the next decade. That may not happen. They may not become a superpower of the sport. But if more people engage with the sport as a result of Newcastle's efforts then the whole sport benefits.

With rugby league being thrust into the national spotlight this autumn (to the greatest extent it has been for some time), we are likely to have another opportunity, just like we did in 1995 and 2013. On those occasions, we had no plan to build on any success.

Over the course of the next six months, it will be a key task of the governing body to make sure any success is not just a fleeting moment, but becomes a legacy. If we can do that, then maybe we will redraw the expansion roadmap and maybe we can start making inroads beyond our comfort zone.