SPOTLIGHT ON: Warrington vs St Helens - signs of a subtle change?

Was Warrington’s victory over St Helens last night a surprise? No.
Was the manner of Warrington’s victory over St Helens last night a surprise? Certainly.

St Helens have been the dominant force in Super League for the last two years, although have failed to turn that dominance into a dynasty of trophies. They finished top of the league by 16 and 18 points in 2018 and 2019 respectively. That is unprecedented. Especially in an era where a salary cap is meant to maintain a level playing field. 

The last time St Helens were defeated in Super League where they played the strongest line up at their disposal was on 6 April 2019.

Given all of this, to see St Helens so comprehensively routed by Warrington yesterday was a shock. In this writer’s view, St Helens have not been dominated for an entire 80 minutes in such a manner as last night since a 53-10 defeat at Castleford in the Challenge Cup in May 2017.
Warrington were wonderful last night. They played a style that matched aggression with discipline. A style that matched directness and skill and St Helens had no answer. 

It was the total opposite of the Warrington that we saw towards the back end of 2019, that was limp and uninspired in attack. Last night, Warrington’s offload game, second phase support and skill belied the fact that we are only two weeks into the Super League season.

But Warrington’s defence deserves credit too. To nil any side in Super League is an achievement. To nil the champion side in Super League is an exceptional one. There was evidence of this last week at Wigan too. Despite being down to 12 men for just short of an hour and 11 men for ten minutes, Warrington’s defence stood firm. It is early days granted, but the start to Warrington’s season is a positive one.

It is easy to get carried away and hung up on one result. It is also something that against all wisdom, is in the nature of a sports fan. Last night's result does give pause for thought as to whether we have seen a slight shift in the balance of Super League power.

Was last night the first sign that two years of St Helens regular round dominance is coming to an end? That is not to suggest that St Helens will not compete this year, nor is it suggesting that they will not top the league or even win trophies. It may, however, be a sign, that the two years of St Helens brushing opponents aside and winning the League Leaders’ Shield at a canter may be over.

St Helens did not make any new signings for 2020, but did lose players from their squad. In our season preview, we questioned whether their reduced depth would have an impact. Here’s a practical example, looking at how St Helens would have coped with their injuries in 2019 compared to 2020:

The 2019 incarnation carries a lot more experience and players in their natural position compared to 2020. That is not a criticism of St Helens. Adam Swift was off contract at the end of 2019 and unlikely to be willing to stay as a back up for a third consecutive season. Equally, with a transfer bid received for Danny Richardson, it would have caused difficulties to keep him as a reserve.

Players like Jack Welsby and Matty Costello will need game time if they are to become regular first-team players one day. Chastening nights like yesterday's will hurt but will also benefit.

The alternate view is that last night was a blip or aberration. St Helens were hit by a level of injuries they have not suffered for years. They also have a World Club Challenge looming. The next few weeks may prove the 'blip' theory to be true.

It is only possible to speculate at this stage. In some ways, it is a credit to St Helens and their dominance that one heavy defeat leads to such questions being raised, such is its scarcity.

The next few weeks and months will be very interesting to watch. Was last night the first sign that the rest of the pack are catching up to St Helens? Or was it just a freak result borne from a perfect storm of Warrington brilliance performance and a St Helens off day?

Let us know your thoughts!