St Helens Storm to Old Trafford

Our preview for the St Helens vs Wigan match was entitled “that wasn’t supposed to happen”. That was, of course, referring to Wigan’s unexpected rise up the table to secure an unlikely second place finish.

What was also unexpected was the ruthless nature in which St Helens took apart their closest rivals on Friday night. In our preview blog, we highlighted two issues that may have prevented St Helens winning the match; errors and big game nerves.

St Helens averaged 17 errors per game in their last four games. On Friday night, their first error came in the 39^th minute. There were also no signs of the jitters that they have demonstrated in crunch games for many a year. Instead, they played with a determination, a laser-like focus that nothing would stand in their way of a first Old Trafford appearance for 5 years.

Given the completeness of their performance, it would almost seem unfair to pick out individual players for praise. Despite that, we will do it anyway! Luke Thompson was unplayable. He made more metres that Willie Isa, Tony Clubb, Oliver Partington, Sam Powell, Liam Byrne, Sean O’ Loughlin and Ben Flower combined. That all in a single 50-minute stint.

Morgan Knowles was his usual excellent self and Lachlan Coote delivered a controlled performance too. It would also be wrong to omit mentioning Tommy Makinson. He ran for 244 metres alone, more than Wigan’s entire starting pack, which ran for 213 metres.

This was St Helens best performance of the year, especially given the importance of the fixture. It can be argued that it was St Helens best performance under Justin Holbrook and the best in their now 7-year old stadium. If they perform at this level, nobody in the Super League can touch them at present.

This was not the tense, close play-off battle that we expected. That does not mean that all is lost for Wigan though. We’ve taken a look at when teams have met twice in the play offs and there has been a blow-out in one of those matches (defined as a 20+ winning margin):

The pattern is, where one match is a blow-out, the other is usually very close. In some cases, the side that has taken a bit of a pasting does not usually suffer the same fate twice in one play-off series. History suggests that, if Wigan do make the Grand Final, the contest will be a lot closer.

If we are being positive for Wigan, there were rare glimpses on Friday when they caused St Helens problems. For their first try, they ruthlessly capitalised on the smallest of defensive misreads. Mark Percival took one step out of the line and within seconds, Liam Marshall was touching down.

On most occasions, the Percival misread would not have cost his team. On this occasion, Wigan’s passing was incisive, timed to perfection and well-executed despite the proximity to the touchline. This will give Wigan encouragement for next week, and they hope, a potential Grand Final.

Let’s not kid ourselves though, the negatives outweigh the positives. If they face St Helens again, their pack needs to find a way of nullifying their St Helens counterparts. That is something that they have been unable to do this year.

Returning to our history lesson now! Let’s take a more detailed look at play-off blow-outs, more specifically, the regular season meetings in those given years between those teams:

The difference between those years and this year (with the exception of 2007) is that the two involved sides had beaten each other in the regular season, on occasions convincingly. Wigan do not have those positive recent memories of beating St Helens to fall back on.

They have only beaten St Helens once in their last seven meetings. But what Wigan do have are positive memories of turning it on when it matters, in recent Grand Finals for example. They may even take inspiration from Warrington. They similarly have a poor recent record in the league against St Helens, but have beaten them in a semi final and final in the last two years.

Perhaps this is getting ahead of ourselves. Wigan have a mighty tough challenge against Salford on Friday night to even make the Grand Final. They will be favourites, but given Salford’s recent form, it would not be a seismic shock if Salford were to win that game.

St Helens will sit comfortably to watch that game on Friday, waiting to learn the identity of their opponents. But after that, they are waiting to be shot down by either Salford or Wigan.

St Helens have been by far the best team this season, no question. But the Grand Final is a one-off game. If they play to their best, then two weeks today they will be the champions. But if they do not, they open the door to either Wigan or Salford. And these are two sides that will not hesitate to take advantage if the opportunity allows.

We said it in our preview blog but it is a message worth repeating. St Helens have won the battle, but are yet to win the war.

Match Highlights