Play off preview #1 - The chance to make history...

Picture Credit: @SuperLeague

It took until the final day of the Super League season for the identity of all of the participants in the play offs to be confirmed. It took until the final minute of the Super League season for the final standings to be confirmed. Far from ideal if, hypothetically speaking, you are attempting to figure out the play off fixtures for a helpful graphic for your Twitter page! Ahem…

The play-offs start on Thursday evening with Warrington hosting Castleford in the first of the elimination matches. This was a game that a few weeks ago neither side thought they would be in, for different reasons. On 6^th June, Warrington had 26 points and Wigan had 12. Warrington have only won 3 Super League games since then and have been overhauled, firstly by Wigan and latterly by Salford.

Salford’s blistering run of form saw then open a gap over Castleford. Meanwhile Hull FC had several chances to secure the play off spot which they ultimately missed out on. For a time, Castleford seemed unlikely to reach the play offs, but Hull FC's slip-ups opened the door.

That is not to dismiss Castleford. They did very well to stay in touch and position themselves to capitalise on Hull FC's poor form. And they took advantage in style, a comfortable penultimate round victory proving enough to achieve 5^th spot.

The commonly-held view is that form going into a play-off series is important. The statistics suggest that form isn’t as important as you may think. And Warrington have form for showing that form isn’t formative of your fate (try saying that one a few times)!

They have struggled in Super League since June, but have raised their game in the two most important games they have played since them, the Challenge Cup semi final and final. Arguably, their two most impressive performances of the season. They showed a defensive steel, incredible discipline, great ball control and a precise kicking game to win both matches and collect their first major silverware since 2012.

Can they raise it again for the play-offs? I have no doubt that they can and will. The Warrington that were seen meekly surrendering to a Leeds side with little to play for save pride last Friday will be unrecognisable come Thursday night.

Steve Price was highly critical of his side for “throwing away two bites at the semi-finals” and labelled the loss at Leeds as “unacceptable”. The first point is the pertinent one, Warrington have now entered do or die territory when it was in their hands to gain an easier route to Old Trafford. They will be able to raise their game for the play offs, but to even get to the Grand Final, they need do raise it three weeks in a row, with two of those games being away from home. That is a difficult task.

Castleford have done well to make it this far. Like many sides, they have had it tough with injuries. Their captain Michael Shenton and scrum half Luke Gale have missed nearly all and the entire season respectively to name but two. You know you have had it bad with injuries when one of your players (Matt Cook) was ruled out for a significant period with a lost voice! Although Castleford have not helped themselves ahead of this Thursday’s game, with Jesse Sene-Lafeo being suspended for a needless knee on Oliver Partington last week.

One view is that the pressure is off Castleford. They have done well to make the play offs and the message from Daryl Powell is likely to be that they have freedom to express themselves without the chokehold of pressure that they have been used to in recent seasons.

On the contrary, the focus may be on defence, which is one of the key reasons that Castleford have made it this far. With the exception of last week, Castleford’s defence has been excellent in recently. In the last five weeks, they have conceded an average of two tries per game. That is including last week’s five try defeat by Wigan.

If Castleford can hold Warrington to two tries, they have a good chance. If Castleford keep it tight early on, they can seek to expose the weaknesses of Warrington that other sides have exposed in recent weeks. If they fail in those missions, Thursday may be a long night.

Without wanting to end on a downer, both sides have an unenviable task if they want to make their mark in the play-offs. In the years that Super League has used the current play off system, only the sides finishing 1^st and 2^nd have ever made the Grand Final.

If Warrington and Castleford want to make history, they need to win a number of tricky away games in succession. But the prize of a Super League trophy, which would be the first for either club, and doing it via a path which has never successfully being trodden before is the greatest motivation you could ask for…

Tomorrow, our preview of Wigan vs Salford will be posted. Make sure to check back here for that one!