How do you solve a problem like play-off crowds?

The action in the first week of the Super League play-offs were gripping. Both games went into their final two minutes with the outcome uncertain. Our review of the on-field action will be posted tomorrow.

The action left the fans on the edge of their seats. The only problem was, there were not enough fans in the stadium to be on the edge of their seats.

As easy as it would be to do, we cannot ignore or accept this. We cannot simply rely on fan loyalty to fill our stadiums. Most importantly of all, we cannot blame the sport’s fans as nobody is obligated to put money into the sport.

In this blog, we’ll look at why play-off crowds are so poor and suggest what can be done to remedy that.

(Picture Credit: Warrington Guardian)

Facts

Warrington’s average attendance for 2019 was 11,079. Their play-off game against Castleford attracted a crowd of 5,627. A drop of just under 50%.

Wigan’s average attendance for 2019 was 12,060. Their play-off game against Salford attracted a crowd of 9,247. A more modest drop of just under 25%.

Cost

But why the drop? We’ll use Wigan as an example. If Wigan make it to Old Trafford and all fixtures that they participate in are won by the highest ranked team, their route will be as follows:

Salford (H)St Helens (A)Salford (H) St Helens (Grand Final)

For an adult season ticket holder to attend, the cheapest price ticket available is £18.00 for the three play-off games. For the Grand Final, the cheapest ticket (albeit in the worst seating and in limited numbers) is £20.00.

So for one adult Wigan season ticket holder to follow their team through the play offs (using the expected route), it would cost £74.00 as a minimum.

If this fan attended with a partner, that cost would be £148.00 as a minimum. If you add that their child attends with them, the cost would be approaching £200.00.

If the fan(s), for example, sat in one of the more expensive side stands at Wigan, or bought more expensive seats for the Grand Final for a better view, the cost rises further to around £300.00.

To attend a match, there are associated expenses. As a minimum, you have to travel to the stadium, paying for parking / a coach / train / bus etc. We’ll guesstimate a conservative £50.00 for these prospective fans. This is not including match programmes or food and drink, but we shall assume that the fan is trying to attend on a budget!

In the example of two adult Wigan fans and a child to attend all play offs on a budget, the outlay would be a minimum of £250.00.

Our clubs are based primarily in working class areas. Our fans broadly fit into the poorer demographic of society. It is not simple to lay your hands of £250.00 to spend on a hobby over the course of one month.

For context, an “auto-renewal” adult, Wigan season ticket for 2020 will cost between £190.00 and £265.00. For that, you get 14 home games and discounted play off and Magic Weekend tickets. 

Meanwhile the cost is a minimum of £74.00 + associated expenses for the play-offs and Grand Final alone. It is no wonder that fans reject attending the play offs.

(Picture Credit: Wigan Today)

Time

We also need to look at the “base” for these fixtures. This time, we will use Warrington as an example.

Let’s assume that Warrington sold 7,000 season tickets for the 2019 season. To state the obvious, that means that, for example, by 1 February 2019, Warrington have sold 7,000 tickets for each of their home league games, whether that be against Wigan in March or London in August. Any remaining sales would boost that base figure.

With play-off matches not included on season tickets, Warrington did not that base figure for their match against Castleford on Thursday. They were instead starting from a base of zero ticket sales.

Worse still, that base figure of zero ticket sales was as at around 9AM on Saturday 14^th September. The game was played at 7:45PM on Thursday 19^th September. That is not a lot of time to sell tickets.

It means that to attend, fans either have to make the effort to go to the club shop and purchase a ticket, or order it online and either pay for postage or collect from the club. All in less than one week.

As we learned with the Super 8’s, arranging fixtures at short notice is not conducive to good crowds. Fans cannot plan their lives around potential dates for fixtures.

It took until last Friday evening for Warrington fans to know when and where they were playing. With such a short timeframe, many would have made alternative plans. Although this problem will persist with any play off structure.

Repeat Fixtures

As far as play-off structures go, I believe that the top 5 is about the fairest. It rewards each side for a higher placed finish. The higher your league standing, the easier your run. It also has the potential to build stories if a lower placed side goes on an unexpected run, such as when Castleford got to within 80 minutes of Old Trafford in 1999, having surprisingly defeating the more-fancied Wigan and Leeds.

The primary problem with this structure is that it often leads to repeat fixtures. We will again use Wigan as an example. If their results go as per the league table, they will play Salford and St Helens twice.

When attending the play-offs is expensive, many fans will ask “Why should I attend the first Salford game as we may play them again in two weeks, but with a place at Old Trafford on the line?”

The more pertinent question for the individual fans would be, is it worth spending £18.00 minimum + expenses to attend the first Salford fixture. Or £36.00 minimum if they attended with a partner. Or £46.00 minimum if they attend with a child. For many, the answer is no. And you cannot blame them for making that choice.

Maybe it is that the play-offs are just not as appealing to fans as they are made out to be?

Solutions

Thus far, this blog has presented a lot of problems but no solutions. A lot of those problems arise from rugby league’s season ticket culture. Fans pay an initial outlay at the start of the season (or monthly by direct debit) and get their season’s worth of action for it. That leads to a reluctance to pay for matches outside of that outlay.

An obvious solution is to get rid of the play offs, which do not fill stadiums and have a first past the post system. But that would remove the event of the Grand Final, which may prove intolerable to Sky. Now is probably not the best time to make a move to displease Sky when our TV contract will shortly expire!

I do not have the figures, but I imagine that removing a 60 to 70,000 crowd from the calendar would impact upon the sport financially and I worry that we would struggle to make up that shortfall in the regular season.

Also, whilst first past the post works well in football, it also has sides battling for coveted European places. We have no such equivalent. And despite misty-eyed nostalgia a revision of the old Premiership competition is not of the same ilk.

Simply saying we need to “market” the game more is not a solution either. For one, there is usually less than a week to sell tickets! If you missed Paul McNally’s blogs on the issue earlier this year, I wholeheartedly recommend reading them.

Rugby league has an embedded season ticket culture. We can either pretend that it does not or alternatively, embrace it.

I suggest that clubs include an “opt-out” option for home play-off matches on a season ticket. If a fan does not opt out, they automatically will be debited for the ticket. This is common in football and would prevent ticket sales from starting from a base of zero as they do now. A less-draconian method may be an “opt-in” system.

Aside from that, I am unsure how the problem can be solved. Our tickets, whilst a significant outlay, are cheap for a sports or entertainment market and we do not want to undersell the product.

What are your thoughts on how to improve play-off crowds? I’m sure any potential idea would be welcomed because play off crowds significantly lower than the regular season is a poor look for the game.